posted on April 24, 2003 01:20:58 PM new
Do you think its an overreaction on the part of the WHO and CDC to advise not traveling to major parts of Asia and Toronto?
And, you would think they would put a 'ban' on B.C. where a lot of Asian travelers first stop is??
posted on April 24, 2003 01:37:53 PM new
I think it was the right thing to do. And if this continues spreading more countries will be added to the list.
I hear those in Toranto are reactioning with anger since Toranto's name was added to the list of countries to avoid, but this is serious business. Business people are in a lose/lose situation. If they don't travel for business, then they lose sales. If they do travel then I've heard they have to go through a 10 day quarantine period before they can return to work.
The question is not what a man can scorn, or disparage, or find fault with, but what he can love, and value, and appreciate. J. Ruskin
posted on April 24, 2003 01:46:33 PM new
In my opinion only, I think is worse than what they report (hey I listen to Noory every night.... what am I saying, I'm a posting ADVERTISMENT for his show! )
Toronto, I guess I understand, its the biggest city there? I think.
I don't think China is giving out the real numbers on this thing. Heck I don't think any country is giving out the real numbers.
Reason is, if they did, it would scare the crap out of everyone, and cause major panic. Though I think there is a begininng of that anyway, the way they are showing China right now.
I read Canada is really angry at the WHO for making that advisory. The mayor of Toronto, I heard a bit on the news radio, was practically screaming about it.
Art Bell Retired! George Noory is on late night coasttocoastam.com
posted on April 24, 2003 01:56:34 PM new
This morning I was reading about how the airlines are already feeling the pinch because flights to Asia have fewer travelers. That's probably why the Toranto mayor is screaming. Being put on 'the list' is going to affect their economy as it will many countries economies. But it's something that has to be done.
One article I was reading was speaking about how bad it might be if this reaches the poorer nations of the world. It's really going to be devastating for them as they hardly have money to care for the ill they have now. Hopefully the WHO's actions will prevent the spread of SAR as much as possible.
The question is not what a man can scorn, or disparage, or find fault with, but what he can love, and value, and appreciate. J. Ruskin
posted on April 24, 2003 01:56:49 PM new
Toronto should be more concerned with the overall cost if this virus gets out of control, not what it loses in immediate revenue.
posted on April 24, 2003 02:03:54 PM new
The virus has already hit a poor nation- China. And they have handled it horribly, just as they have handled AIDS. First they deny, then they try to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Geeze I hate communism.
posted on April 24, 2003 02:06:54 PM new
You're right, of course, I was thinking along the lines of Africa...places in the Middle East.
The question is not what a man can scorn, or disparage, or find fault with, but what he can love, and value, and appreciate. J. Ruskin
posted on April 24, 2003 02:19:51 PM new
I definately do not think it is an over reaction. One of the reports I caught last night said regional doctors started seeing cases last year and saw them rise steadily as the government ignored the problem until it spread into metrolpolitan areas and could be ignored no more. In the meantime the virus seems to have mutated and become stronger.
WHO isn't putting out the advisory based on Asian traffic routes, Toronto was singled out because over 80% of Canadian cases are there. most is not all of which can be sourced back to a 78 year old woman who returned from a visit to Hong Kong with the virus, she infected her family members went to a local hospital, infected their care givers who in turn infected friends, family and patients and in 2 months 16 people are dead, over 330 infected and another 300 in quarantine. All from one sick little old lady. Considering the growth rate I definately would put out a travel advisory.
In addition to the health aspects, the ecomonic effects of further spread could further devastate financial markets thru out the world. Best to shut it down now while it is somewhat contained .
posted on April 24, 2003 02:28:53 PM new
It is strange too what our modern expectations are concerning infectious diseases.
I think the mortality rate for this SAR is less than 3%.
Yet it was less than a century ago that we had higher mortality rates for measles, chicken pox, typhoid, Spanish flu, etc.. Antibiotics changed the equation drastically and we can now take health and long life almost as a given in the battle against infectious diseases.
posted on April 24, 2003 02:30:07 PM new
I think its more than this 'updated' account
As of today, a cumulative total of 4439 cases with 263 deaths have been reported from 26 countries. This represents an increase of 158 new cases and 12 deaths compared with yesterday. The deaths occurred in Canada (2), China (4), Hong Kong SAR (4), and Singapore (2). Bulgaria reported its first case today.
posted on April 24, 2003 02:39:31 PM new
Near, Toronto is about an hour and a half north of me. Of the few people I've talked to about it, more were concerned for China than Toronto. According to the Canadian Press, the numbers here aren't that bad...
Following is the provincial breakdown:
Ontario: 136 probable and 125 suspect cases. (So far, 129 of these cases have been discharged from hospitals in Ontario.)
posted on April 24, 2003 02:58:17 PM new
I'm actually surprised that the debates have not started up, or that if they have, have not been picked up be the media regarding outbreaks of new and especially deadly or virulent diseases in especially plighted or vastly over populated areas.
Could over population and depletion of natural resources result in the evolution of viruses such as Ebolla, AIDS and now SARS as a spontanious natural population control method which, in the case of AIDS and SARS spread beyond their targets as a result of human interference or do overpopulated areas simply provide a more effective breeding ground for pre-existing viruses to grow?
posted on April 24, 2003 03:07:01 PM new
All uncontrolled populations of animals follow a cycle of peak and crash if there is no predation. Humans included.
The fatality rate in Canada is closer to 7% but a noted epidemiologist stated that so many cases are new that that outbreak will probably have closer to a 10% kill rate.
So to put it in perspective they think it's more important that the Blue Jays have good ticket sales at the small risk of a world decimating pandemic getting loose..........
It would not be anything new. The 1918 flu killed about that many but then all the economies were basically local and agrarian.
How it would effect a globally integrated economy will be a new experience.
And this fatality rate is in a country with good facilities. If it gets loose in areas of say Africa where there are no hospitals with respirators for the vast majority the rate may be much higher.
Personally, since the Chinese are still saying the number of cases in Shanghi is a "state secret" I think it has completely gotten away from them already.
posted on April 24, 2003 03:14:44 PM new
If your talking why there were no debates, thats why I started this.... rather, I don't want to (REALLY I don't) argue about this disease, but I was surprised, when going down the list of threads here, there was nothing on SARS
I had heard that there is a likely 10% mortality rate
I heard Noory say the other night, when talking about this... he said maybe it has to do with the enviorment we live in today... he said 'say you were standing in the open air of the Los Angeles area in 1900, then quickly fast forward to today' you'd probably fall over from the difference in the air quality alone.
Art Bell Retired! George Noory is on late night coasttocoastam.com
posted on April 24, 2003 03:17:46 PM new
have to agree with that Gravid, I do believe that China is holding the numbers back, waaaay back... but then, I think any country will, as not to panic people.
I also heard those surgical masks are no good at all, that only SARS patients should be wearing them, and the caregivers of the patient. Yet you see about 95% of the pop. over there wearing them.
Art Bell Retired! George Noory is on late night coasttocoastam.com
posted on April 24, 2003 03:22:29 PM new
::Personally, since the Chinese are still saying the number of cases in Shanghi is a "state secret" I think it has completely gotten away from them already. ::
Do you think that the Chinese government is as completely inept as their handling of both this and their AIDS crisis would lead one to believe or could it be a policy of deliberate inaction allowing these diseases to take over where their own population control methods have failed?
posted on April 24, 2003 03:27:25 PM new
Bush Order Allows Forced
Quarantine Of SARS Cases
By [email protected]
4-4-3
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush issued an executive order on
Friday allowing the forced quarantine of patients with a mysterious new
illness that has killed 80 people, as well as patients with other
diseases such as Ebola.
The order allows the Health and Human Services secretary to decide when
such a quarantine is needed.
It calls for the "apprehension, detention or conditional release of
individuals to prevent the introduction, transmission or spread of
suspected communicable diseases."
It names Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which has affected a
suspected 115 people in the United States and 2,400 worldwide, killing
around 80.
The order also names cholera, diphtheria, infectious tuberculosis,
plague, smallpox, yellow fever and viral hemorrhagic fevers such as
Ebola, Lassa and Marburg.
posted on April 24, 2003 03:59:26 PM new
junqemama, do you think this is a wrong thing for Bush to do, considering whats happening in China and Canada?
Art Bell Retired! George Noory is on late night coasttocoastam.com
posted on April 24, 2003 04:03:21 PM new
I believe it was within the last month that a plane arriving in San Jose was also held for a while for the same reason. The passengers all check out okay and they were allowed to leave the plane.
This is going to be very tough. But, imo, if we take these actions it will prevent this from spreading.
I always felt we should have quarantined those who were getting sick from aids until they could determine what was causing it.
So I think the decision to quarantine those who have SARS is a very good idea.
The question is not what a man can scorn, or disparage, or find fault with, but what he can love, and value, and appreciate. J. Ruskin
posted on April 24, 2003 04:18:30 PM new
NTS,Depends on what the people have to go through.A hospital setting would be preferable,to some kind of holding tank.
But seeing how people freak out during a code orange alert,the Feds may have to put a postal zip, on that plane thats on the tarmac...
posted on April 24, 2003 04:32:49 PM new
Well..... I think that its a good thing that there is going to be (haven't had one yet, except for the planes) a mandatory quarantine. At least it *may* nip it in the bud if things get anywhere near what they are in Canada.
I think an 'in house' quarantine would probably be good. I doubt they could do it in a hospital, IF the numbers were large.
I can't see a holding tank set up. I doubt that would happen.
I think it was in China,they were forcing people into an old drug rehab because they 'broke the law' by breaking their in house quarantine..... I honestly don't know how they are going to keep track of all these people over there.
Art Bell Retired! George Noory is on late night coasttocoastam.com
posted on April 24, 2003 04:54:09 PM new
::I always felt we should have quarantined those who were getting sick from aids until they could determine what was causing it. ::
Unfortunately, even if someone had tried to do that it would have been ineffective for a couple reasons. Even after the the source of the disease had been pinpointed it took awhlle for many to be diagnosed since AIDS manifests itself in such a wide variety of diseases. plus, by the time most patients became systematic, the damage was already done.
I lost a very close friend a few years ago to AIDS. Basically the AIDS virus devores the bodies T-Cells limiting it's ability to fight off disease. AIDS itself does not kill, it just the kicks the doors open for other diseases to do the dirty work. A healthy person has an average T-Cell count of 1200. The cut off the between HIV Positive and AIDS classification is 500. After dealing with intestinal problens for about a month my handsome, healthy looking, active, and energetic friend decided to see a doctor. When test results came back he was diagnosed not as HIV positive, but as being in the midst of full blown AIDS with a T-Cell count of only 80 and given 6 months at most to live. There was no telling how long he had had the virus as his partner of two years tested negative. In his case the virus manifested itself in the form of colon and eventually lung cancer but he exceeded the doctors diagnosis by 6 months.
posted on April 24, 2003 05:24:02 PM new
neonmania - I'm very sorry you lost a close friend due to the HIV/AIDS virus. I came to know a few with aids when I worked at a medical facility.
While I can't remember the year, it was in CA and the governor was talking about passing a law to quarantine the people with aids. At that time they didn't know how it was spreading. But..as history shows it didn't come about anyway.
The question is not what a man can scorn, or disparage, or find fault with, but what he can love, and value, and appreciate. J. Ruskin
posted on April 24, 2003 05:42:05 PM new
Linda, thank you : )
It's amazing sometimes to look back and see how officials dealt with the unknown. Of coure the benefit of a few extra years of reasearch makes it all seem so simple.
I'm just glad that it didn't take 3 years for them to identify the cause of SARS.
posted on April 24, 2003 06:03:02 PM new
Near - Thank you too : )
You are absolutely right that they are two very different animals. Also from what I have found quarantine is the quickest way to wipe it out . Aparrently the gestation period is a mere 10 days so a two to three week quarantine theoreticly could eliminate the threat. Of course the reality of quarantining a nation is a lot harder than the theory.
As far as CDC and WHO, I think they are telling us what they know but it's got to be frustrating to them to not be able to get information fom the people that have dealt with it the longest.
I'm really beginning to believe the Chinese are willing to let disease run unchecked for while to help allieviate over population issues. Other than complete incompetennce, I can't imagine another explination.
posted on April 25, 2003 12:35:51 PM new
Helen, so you read the Peoples Daily of China.
Honestly, those articles on what the Chinese gov't are doing about SARS is 'window dressing'
This thing could have been going on longer than we know.
The time they'll REALLY get concerned is when it affects the Party leaders, there are a finite number of communist party leaders, where there is an infinite number of Chinese citizens.
Art Bell Retired! George Noory is on late night coasttocoastam.com
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