roadsmith
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posted on September 2, 2008 10:59:12 PM new
The latest polling, tonight.
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desquirrel
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posted on September 6, 2008 03:10:21 PM new
Make that 47-45 or statistically even.
Apparently the "no woman would vote for Palin" was 4-5% and the rest was after the "terrible" speeches by Guiliani and Palin.
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profe51
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posted on September 6, 2008 04:17:54 PM new
I just looked at the most recent 11 polls on pollingreport.com. Averaged them together, and they come out McBush 43%, Obama 50%. Clearly, the Thrilla from Wasilla has energized the base and not done much more. I read one blog today that compared her to a cheerleader at a nursing home. No matter how bad she is, it's bound to perk things up a bit. 
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kiara
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posted on September 6, 2008 04:27:39 PM new
Clearly, the Thrilla from Wasilla has energized the base and not done much more. I read one blog today that compared her to a cheerleader at a nursing home. No matter how bad she is, it's bound to perk things up a bit.
LOL
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desquirrel
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posted on September 6, 2008 04:52:43 PM new
I would keep laughing. I would laugh until my sides hurt. I'd even quote every poll of the Berkeley campus I could find. But in the end we'll compare Gallup against a few dozen "averaged" together and see how we make out.
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Helenjw
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posted on September 6, 2008 05:43:00 PM new
The polls won't mean a lot until we hear from Palin without her playscript. One debate with Biden should do the trick.
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desquirrel
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posted on September 6, 2008 07:52:27 PM new
The polls will mean what they mean whether or not Biden can refrain from Dean meltdown.
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Helenjw
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posted on September 6, 2008 08:41:14 PM new
She will be in hiding for two weeks?!
From Andrew Sullivan
"This is incredible, totally incredible. A vice presidential candidate isn't going to be available to the press for two weeks? Two weeks? In September. We have this total unknown who could be president of the United States next January. And she's in hiding for two weeks. Chris Matthews on this clip says that this is fine. Has he lost his mind? She needs to be in front of the press now. The United States and the world cannot have this total unknown foisted on the presidency without any serious vetting and without any press interaction. This is absolutely third world. Since when is the governor of a state given two weeks in hiding?"
"The sexism that implies that someone cannot stand up to reporters because she is a woman is appalling. This entire pick, of course, is incredibly sexist, and the handling of her in the last week the most sexist double standard I have ever seen in American politics. Can you imagine Hillary Clinton saying she wasn't going to answer questions for two weeks? Or Margaret Thatcher? Or Kay Bailey Hutchison? Or Elizabeth Dole? And none of these women were ever as close to global power as Sarah Palin now is. This is getting to Manchurian Candidate levels of creepiness. It's deeply sinister and slightly terrifying."
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profe51
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posted on September 6, 2008 10:20:42 PM new
I heard Matthews say that yesterday Helen, couldn't believe my ears.
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profe51
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posted on September 6, 2008 10:26:57 PM new
But in the end we'll compare Gallup against a few dozen "averaged" together and see how we make out.
OK, let's do that. Gallup had them in a dead heat before either convention, and has Obama leading now by a small, but none the less outside the margin of error lead. 
WASHINGTON: The Republican National convention may have helped presidential nominee Senator MCCain to "recoup some of his losses" in public support, according to Gallup polls.
Its latest tracking poll of the presidential race shows Democratic nominee Barack Obama still leading, 48 per cent to McCain's 44 per cent. That compares with Obama's 49 per cent -42 per cent lead on Friday and or 8 points lead he held over the past week.
The latest numbers, based on Tuesday-through-Thursday telephone interviews of 2,779 registered voters, don't fully reflect any changes in opinion since Wednesday night's convention address from GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, or last night's address by McCain.
Gallup says the new numbers have margins of error of +/- 2 per cent age points. Two weeks ago, before the two parties' back-to-back conventions, the tracking poll showed Obama and McCain in a 45 per cent - 45 per cent tie.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/McCain_still_trails_Obama_44_per_cent_to_48/articleshow/3452230.cms
[ edited by profe51 on Sep 6, 2008 10:27 PM ]
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Helenjw
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posted on September 7, 2008 05:34:01 AM new
I am so impressed when someone can decipher and then correct squirrel's posts!
Looks like Matthews is following the pack. Amazing!
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roadsmith
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posted on September 7, 2008 09:20:32 AM new
I just found this zinger in my e-mail:
From a current newspaper column:
__Despite his consistent party-line voting record, some independents and Democrats still think of Senator McCain as the most palatable, independent-minded Republican. But this is the sort of empty compliment a friend of mine once compared to being called “the coolest Osmond.”__
Also: "Sarah Palin is Dick Cheney in lipstick."
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desquirrel
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posted on September 7, 2008 09:37:07 AM new
You'll have to point out the correction.
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Helenjw
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posted on September 7, 2008 11:10:20 AM new
Squirrel, I understand Profe's comment. I do not understand yours. From my viewpoint, Profe's post was a correction but you may call it a "clarification" if that makes better sense to you.
Your effort to convey a thought is so convoluted that I sometimes wonder if you are distracted by some other activity while you write. So when someone responds to what I consider unintelligible, I'm really impressed.
Kiara impresses me in that respect too. I'm anxious to read how you answer her question addressed to you on the "POW: McCain not fit to lead thread".
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desquirrel
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posted on September 7, 2008 02:44:36 PM new
I'll explain slowly. Prof states that 11 polls had Obama ahead 7 or more points. I replied that Gallup had it virtually even and not to order the party supplies yet. Now if your response is meant to validate the accuracy of any of the 11 vs Gallup, I'll take that bet and give you 2 to 1.
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desquirrel
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posted on September 7, 2008 04:54:19 PM new
In case any one's interested:
McCain 48%, Obama 45% on Gallup
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profe51
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posted on September 7, 2008 05:15:29 PM new
I'll take that bet and give you 2 to 1.
As long as Gallup has him ahead.
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logansdad
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posted on September 7, 2008 06:57:24 PM new
Clearly, the Thrilla from Wasilla has energized the base and not done much more.
Here I thought she was known as the Killa from Wasilla because of her energy and environmental policies.
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deichen
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posted on September 12, 2008 01:32:22 PM new
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results for Sept. 9-11 show a slight, but not statistically significant, three percentage point advantage for John McCain over Barack Obama among registered voters, 48% to 45%.
show a slight, but not statistically significant
GO OBAMA!
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desquirrel
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posted on September 12, 2008 01:58:12 PM new
From 10 points ahead to 3 behind.
Go OBAMA!!!!!
Another interesting Gallup poll:
In Congressional voting the Dems seem to have gone from double digits ahead to 3%.
Go Dems!!!!
[ edited by desquirrel on Sep 12, 2008 01:58 PM ]
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vintage4u
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posted on September 12, 2008 03:28:45 PM new
Doubts cast on Gallup poll
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/world/-/1068/469652/-/rxnf86/-/
good point.
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desquirrel
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posted on September 12, 2008 04:18:24 PM new
You know what a better game is than reading Kenyan newspapers??????
Go back and check Gallup predictions vs the actual results over the last decade.
Odd they find fault with Gallup's methodology since Gallup discloses nothing except that they use scientifically derived sampling.
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vintage4u
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posted on September 12, 2008 04:50:29 PM new
you have an odd definition of the word fun.
you know what else is fun?
THIS
have a coke and a smile
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hwahwa
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posted on September 12, 2008 05:41:46 PM new
Someone said this is a contest where one is 8 years too late and the other 8 years too early.
Obama would have a second ,third,fourth chance!
*
Gulag-a Soviet era concentration camp is now reincarnated as EBAY with 13,000 rules.
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deichen
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posted on September 13, 2008 11:45:11 AM new
Because squirrel finds the gallop sooooo important......
Gallup Daily: McCain 47%, Obama 45%
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desquirrel
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posted on September 13, 2008 10:31:23 PM new
Not "important", just accurate.
It's boring as hell to see endless posts like "Mrs Minnie's 3rd grade class says Obama 92 to 8".
While statistically conservatives have higher IQ ratings, even the dumbest twit can't argue with Gallup's record.
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coach81938
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posted on September 14, 2008 06:07:09 AM new
Squirrel--I think you meant to say "statistically conservatives THINK they have higher IQ's.
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Helenjw
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posted on September 14, 2008 06:23:27 AM new
Squirrel, does that include Conservatives like Sarah who brings to mind the ah rah girl?
The interview
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pixiamom
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posted on September 14, 2008 06:23:37 AM new
I think it's more accurate to say that some conservatives pretend they have higher IQs - remember this is squirrel - who gleans his info by watching MythBusters - then claims it came from Scientific American!
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Helenjw
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posted on September 14, 2008 06:37:52 AM new
Squirrel, does that group of most intelligent include conservatives who don't believe in science...those, for example who don't believe in evolution or the fact that humans contribute to global warming.
Is my representative sample perhaps screwing up your mathematical probability.
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