posted on January 20, 2005 07:43:09 AM new
It seems it is a good time to close you short sale of eBay stock. There is always a bounced after such a major drop. We may want do to the short sales again later, after we see the real impact of this fee increase which will be revenue negative. See my Analysis of the proposed price increases http://www.vendio.com/mesg/read.html?num=2&thread=595559
If you want your protest of the fee increase to really have a real impact, write to the financial reporters and analyst that write these articles.
The benefit of this fee increase may be that we all develope and implement a good internet and eBay selling strategy, in addition to the profit we may derive from short selling eBay stock.
posted on January 20, 2005 08:16:12 AM new
Although I think the clowns at Overstuffed Auctions blew it when they launched their technically firetrucked auction site, THIS is a very savvy move:
posted on January 20, 2005 08:24:57 AM new
Marine - perhaps before you refer everyone to your posts you should read theirs. There was a discussion regarding the stock price drop last night and the fees had absolutely nothing to do with it. Glad to see the drop though since it as long as it holds, with the upcoming split it'll mean that much more that I can purchase. We are talking about a stock that saw an 80% increase in value last year afterall.
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on January 20, 2005 10:03:09 AM new
No Marines....it could not be because of the fee increase. Ebay stock dropped because it made less money in the Oct-Dec 2004 period than expected, and told analysts that they themselves expect to have a growth in earnings in 2005 that was less than previously thought.
.
.Your analysis of the fee increase has it's merits, but your stock market analysis is flawed. If the fee increase does affect earnings in 2005 and beyond in a negative way, and I do believe that they will by causing fewer listings and fewer upgrades, then these earning reports that come out a year from now will cause the stock to fall. So the time to short Ebay stock because of an effect of fee increase was not last week, it will be 1 year from now, or as we see listings falling from watching Medved. If you did go short last week I'm glad you made money, but you were just lucky. If Ebay had come out with earnings a little higher than expected, and a rosier outlook for the future, then there stock would have gone up 20% instead of down 20%.
posted on January 20, 2005 10:08:17 AM new
""Ebay stock dropped because it made less money in the Oct-Dec 2004 period than expected,::
Actually - in terms of actual dollars - they made more than the analysts thought but the price per share was less because the analysts missed the mark on actual shares. Now it seems that they are playing a game of CYA be trying to point out any flaw in the module they can find while glossing over a 44% increase in revenues. I hope they keep it up for a little while longer... I'll be buying after the split.
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
[ edited by fenix03 on Jan 20, 2005 10:09 AM ]
posted on January 20, 2005 01:57:50 PM newGenerally speaking, it is best to buy *before* a stock split.
Why is that?
In my extremely limited experience it's better to buy AFTER the split. The
financial advisor I spoke to said it was better to do so BEFORE.
Please explain.
Frankly, I think sooner or later someone somewhere will build and market a better mouse trap and eBay (and it's stock)
will suffer. That time isn't here yet, but
surely it can't be that far away.
posted on January 20, 2005 02:12:06 PM new
After a split, the price generally goes up (the theory is that more people can afford to buy after a split). Best to buy when price is lower.
posted on January 20, 2005 02:18:02 PM new
AJ - dozens have tried and at least three of those had built in name recogination when they did and all have failed. The only company that has the current traffic and name recognition to even attempt to make a legitimate challenge would be Google and I I don't see them going in that direction.
I still think that Ebay should shove the analysis down the expert throats by turning their China investments into a Liquidation.com type portal between Chinese Manufacturers/Distributers and US buyers.
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on January 20, 2005 03:40:07 PM new
I for one would be very very surprised if Ebay still existed 20 years from now. That's not to say that at times there will be opportunities to make profits from trading Ebay stock, but in the long run, I wouldn't have any Internet stocks in my retirment fund, with the reluctant exception of Google if I had to choose 1 Internet stock. Sooner or later, Wall Street will realize that it is the nature of the Internet to not allow any company to experience 15% or better annual growth. The world got along just fine before there was such a thing as Internet auctions. It's not something people need, like they need medicine, or a car. For Ebay stock to be worth $80 it needs to have an average of 15% growth for the next 50 years. I don't think this is going to happen. As the company gets larger, it gets harder and harder to grow this fast. Competitors will come along. I think that within 5 years Ebay will be shrinking instead of growing.
