posted on January 20, 2005 01:14:12 PM new
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- EBay Inc., a perennial investor darling that defied the dot-com collapse, is warning Wall Street that its 2005 financial performance will fall short of bullish expectations.
The company's revised profit and revenue forecasts Wednesday provoked a swift market sell-off and unleashed a torrent of investor skepticism -- ranging from the company's China strategy to its skill at managing currency fluctuations.
EBay shares plunged $18.79, or 18 percent, to $84.26 in midday trading Thursday, lopping more than $12.4 billion from the company's market capitalization. The stock ended the regular session at $103.05 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
Ebay shares are off more than 20 percent this month.
Meg Whitman, EBay president and chief executive, said Wednesday the company expects to report 2005 sales between $4.25 billion and $4.35 billion, including $1.01 billion to $1.03 billion in the first quarter.
That's below the lofty expectations of Wall Street, where a survey of 22 analysts by financial research firm Thomson First Call predicted eBay would report 2005 sales of roughly $4.37 billion, including $1.05 billion in the first quarter. The most optimistic analysts predicted 2005 revenue of $4.52 billion, including $1.07 billion in the first quarter.
"The bloom is off the eBay rose," said David Garrity, a technology analyst for Caris & Co. "You're going to have the entire Street cutting numbers just to come in line with what the company published."
Ebay, one of the world's largest e-commerce companies, also came in one penny under Wall Street's expectations for the fourth quarter, with earnings of $205.4 million, or 30 cents per share. That compares with $142.5 million, or 21 cents per share in the same period of 2003.
Excluding special items, eBay earned $226 million, or 33 cents per share, up from $157 million, or 24 cents per share, in the fourth quarter of 2003.
For the three months ended Dec. 31, eBay reported fourth-quarter revenue of $935.8 million, up from $648.4 million in the year-ago period.
Analysts expected profit of 34 cents per share on sales of $934.17 million.
Throughout 2004, eBay earned $778.2 million, or $1.14 per share, on sales of $3.27 billion. In 2003, the company earned $441.8 million, or 67 cents per share, on sales of $2.17 billion.
EBay -- considered one of the most financially conservative companies in Silicon Valley -- has met or exceeded Wall Street expectations every quarter but once since 2001, when Thomson First Call began tracking the company's performance.
Until Wednesday, EBay's only disappointment was the second quarter of 2003, when it missed analysts' prediction by 2 cents per share. But that episode didn't significantly dent the stock price.
Based on its closing price Wednesday, eBay's price-to-earnings ratio -- a critical measure of Wall Street's bullishness of a company -- was 98. By contrast, Microsoft's ratio was 35. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, was 23.
Analysts sounded alerts Wednesday on a variety of eBay data. Many questioned why the company would spend an estimated $100 million to develop its Chinese operations, though China isn't likely to become a mainstream e-commerce market for years. Others worried about the rising amount of money eBay spends on litigation, administrative costs and other expenses.
In a research note Wednesday, Derek Brown of Pacific Growth Equities warned that the company's earnings may have been inflated by as much as $140 million in 2004 because of the weak U.S. dollar, which may not be sustainable in 2005 and beyond. He worried the company could miss more Wall Street expectations in 2005.
"We believe a more cautious approach to the stock is warranted at this time," Brown wrote.
EBay had 135 million registered users in 2004 -- enough to make it world's ninth largest country, after Russia. More than 1.4 billion items were listed on the site last year -- the equivalent of five items for every American.
EBay also announced a two-for-one stock split effective Feb. 16 for shareholders of record on Jan. 31.
Absolute faith has been shown, consistently, to breed intolerance. And intolerance, history teaches us, again and again, begets violence.
---------------------------------- "Give it up for George W. Bush, the best friend international jihad ever had."
posted on January 20, 2005 05:00:17 PM new
If their powersellers will keep supporting them they will be o.k. but the little guys are heading to other sites in groves,but I'm sure E-bay doesn't care about that.
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Two men sit behind bars,one sees mud the other sees stars.
