posted on January 28, 2003 10:04:33 AM new
Interesting artical about the economy and a heads up.The picture is not rosie,and common sense is encouraged.
posted on January 28, 2003 10:28:29 AM new
These 'dooms-dayers' have always been around when the economy weakens.
The economists are still holding the position that our economy is still on solid ground, growing...albeit at a very minimal rate. While growing, the unemployment rates aren't nearly as high as they have been, say in the 70s.
The stock market bubble did burst, and wasn't helped by the corporate scandals.
Yes, things may get worse before they get better. All we can do is work to try and stimulate the economy.
AND junquemama....your suggestion to buy gold was a great one. The prices have continued to go up. Gold sold for right at $800.00 an ounce in the late 70s, early 80s.
[ edited by Linda_K on Jan 28, 2003 10:50 AM ]
posted on January 28, 2003 10:50:12 AM new
LindaK,Gold will go a lot higher,It is the most active traded right now,Silver will be dragged up slightly and platinum will only be bumped up...People dont trust the funny money anymore..
posted on January 28, 2003 10:59:02 AM new
Oh yes, silver. It too went wild in the same time period I mentioned above. I believe the high was somewhere around $22.00 - $24.00 an ounce then. Then that market colapsed when the Hunt Brothers were found to be manipulating the market.
posted on January 28, 2003 11:12:37 AM new
"Some of my readers have the opinion that the "powers that be" in Washington do know the truth about our unfolding tragedy, but do not want to scare the public into a panic. If any of our leaders really understood the truth, why would they be pushing measures that add "fuel to the fire?" Why did our economic gurus pursue policies that promoted credit and housing bubbles to rival and expand that in the stock market? It is either gross incompetence or ignorance or both!"
Only an idiot would have optimism during this economy. It's really frightening when you think of everything that will be affected besides the price of silver and gold....schools, health care, unemployment!
posted on January 28, 2003 12:04:37 PM new
Gold bubbled in the late 1970's because Saudi Arabia decided that they wanted to back up their currency with a Gold Standard and went out on a six-month buying spree. When the Saudis were done with their buying spree, the prices went back down, but never to the lower prices that they had been. Unless some other rich country goes on a Gold Buying spree, I think that Gold will continue to be a poor investment. Better to put your money into the bond market. Small return, but at least it won't go down (unless you say, "W.U.P.P.S.!"
I'd have to take the time to read those books and then compare them against others who discredit them and those that support them in order to feel as though I had a valid opinion on this thread topic.
However, one thing that I can see is that pouring BILLIONS of U.S. Taxpayer dollars into the Stock Market to buoy it is an artificial process and is, in my uneducated opinion, grossly negligent. I say that because the economy continues to slide downwards, thus loosing those Billions of Taxpayer Dollars into the Black Hole Universe where missing socks go to find their final resting place. That just makes us go into debt than much faster and further and that can't be a good thing.
The greater into debt we go, the greater the payments will be to repay those loans and that's money that is not being pumped back into the economy or infrastructure of this country. That's bad too.
The Republicans came into office with just one idea in mind: TRASH THE ECONOMY! Even destroying one year's Social Security Surplus wasn't good enough for them -- they've devised ways to keep our economy trashed. And what they are doing is simply taking all of the money and throwing it away into a great cesspool -- that is, what they aren't pocketing for themselves. And don't get me wrong here -- the Democrats have seen the gluttony and are quickly selling out as well to join into the feeding frenzy.
I moved all of my funds into Treasures and bonds already. Enjoy it when Alan Greenspan has to announce that the government can no longer afford to use "The Plan"; i.e. pumping Billions of Taxpayer Dollars into the stock market, and the stock market will be left to go into a free fall. You have to see it as a large mountaintop shearing off half way up. The government is artificially allowing the market to continue to shear away, supporting it badly, and eventually, the entire weight will become too great and the supports will break. The mountaintop extended now not just to the brink and spilling over in a steady stream will be positioned over empty air, as in a cartoon. A world-wide Depression will follow and Wars will come about and Chaos and Death to millions, perhaps billions this time. All compliments of Bush, Jr. & Co. and Satan.
posted on January 28, 2003 12:13:51 PM new
Borillar - That's just what I meant in my other thread. No administration would 'work to trash' the economy. Period. Not in their best interests. Tends to cause voters not to re-elect them.
More than 1/2 of Americans have investments in the stock market. I buy that as a reason any administration would work to do all they could to support it.
posted on January 28, 2003 12:26:40 PM new
LindaK,..1/2 of the American public may have stocks,The reason the stock market is in trouble is because most of those stocks are in short term,Just hours or a couple of days for a good bump.People have learned to take the money and run.People have not forgivin the fiasco of 9/11.I enjoy the fairy tales of a bull market, where none exist.The experts on the different market newscasts have been trying to boost confidence in the American stock market with empty promises of long term gain.The people arent buying the lie.
posted on January 28, 2003 12:36:21 PM new
Borillar,Keep an eye open on the dollar,If nothing comes along to boost its value,bonds will not save the day.Gold goes up because of the threat of war and dollar devaluation in this economy.Gold has been manipulated for many years against a worthless piece of paper.Some people dont realize we dont own the Ft.Knox depository.And if people think it is full of gold....They may be in for a surprize.Just in case,Buy a little gold or silver even scrape to tied you over in an emergency.Its still out there,yard sells,flea markets,auctions.
posted on January 28, 2003 01:06:09 PM new
The 50+ % I'm referring to is Americans who have their 401Ks etc. invested in the stock market. Not those 'day traders'.
Where Texas ranks in the states
Number of executions 1st
Uninsured children 1st
Most polluted city (Houston) 1st
Ozone emissions 1st
Public health spending 47th
State government spending 50th
posted on January 28, 2003 01:18:23 PM new
That 50% figure may not be too accurate now. It was reported last week that Wall Street is shaking at the lack of 401k money flowing in. It seems that many 401k holders changed their invesment option to bonds and treasuries from equities.
In any event there is much in the article I garee with, but some I take with a grain of salt. The Elliot wavers are generally known for trying to sell newsletters. Even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day, and I have yet to see an Elliot waver as rich as George Soros or the Oracle of Omaha.
If the Elliot wave theory was correct, then these folks should be billionaires going short and long on the theory, but none of them are.
Gold can be a good hedge against inflation. It is a short term fools errand for anything else. While many foreigners buy gold due to economic problems or civil disorder, they do so because they can not get or are not permitted to hold, or they lack a liquid market market in US dollars. In the final analysis gold is a market timed asset.
posted on January 28, 2003 01:54:15 PM newIt was reported last week that Wall Street is shaking at the lack of 401k money flowing in. It seems that many 401k holders changed their invesment option to bonds and treasuries from equities.
Flowing in yes, agreed. But I'd heard many stock market analysts [recently] state those who had their money in stocks [in 401ks, etc] have been 'holding' in there...keeping them there rather than cashing out and taking the loss.
posted on January 28, 2003 02:07:00 PM new
I am not certain how shifting existing equitity holdings in a 401k works, But it may work thus:
The stocks are held in company name not in the 401k holders name. So if a 401k holder wants to dump his stock holdings, the 401k plan manager just pays the person the equivalent of their stock holdings and retains the stock in company name until either their is another plan buyer or they need cash. The investments are "moved" only on the books of the managing company. No actual sale of stocks actually take place.
So there could be not only a lack of new cash for stocks coming in from 401ks, but there is a delaying action before the stocks are sold - if they get sold at all. It all depends on the cash flow needs of the managing company. There is really little cash flow out, so far. But if a panic ensued by 401k holders and they opted completely out of the system and demanded their cash, then the sale of stocks bonds etc would take off with disasterous effect on the market.
But the government won't allow that to happen- the govt would provide the companies with cash to pay out the holders.
But all of this is academic to the present fundemental problems with the economy.
posted on January 28, 2003 02:18:51 PM new
Not sure I'm understanding you correctly or not. And I give you every benefit of being a much more knowledgable person than I.
Saying that I'll try to be clearer.
Say...we own stock shares [in our 401k] that we paid $10.00 each for.
The stock market heads down. Our stock is now valued at $1.00. In our 401k plan IF we were to want to get out of our stock holdings, we would only receive a credit of $1.00 x the number of stocks we own. Not the $$ we paid for them. So...yes, we could then put that amount in another investment choice, BUT we would have lost $9.00 per share and we cannot write that off. So...some are holding their stocks hoping [praying ] their stock will again go up.
That's the group of 401k holders who are 'hanging in there' with their stock investments that I was speaking about.
posted on January 28, 2003 02:26:26 PM new
>Borillar - That's just what I meant in my other thread. No administration would 'work to trash' the economy. Period. Not in their best interests.
I know you think that it is simple incompetance on their parts, or laziness, or ignorance. But you have to examine the facts as they lay, Linda, which I think that you are not doing. I think that you do not want to read what is there but filter it through your own beliefs. Me, I'd rather stick to the facts and let them tell the tale.
For instance, what Geroge Bush & Co. did for Texas as austbounty posted posted on January 28, 2003 01:11:13 PM:
Where Texas ranks in the states Number of executions 1st Uninsured children 1st Most polluted city (Houston) 1st Ozone emissions 1st Public health spending 47th State government spending 50th
I've seen worse lists coming from there.
That is exactly he same thing that he is trying to accomplish on a national scale, given the facts. Those facts are what he did in Texas and what his current policies are and have been since he took office.
Some day, Linda, you're going to open up your eyes and see what the truth is and you are not going to be happy. But that is not my province ~ you have established a path to learning the Truth and will abide no short-cuts.
posted on January 28, 2003 02:37:34 PM new
Borillar - NO, you have it wrong. There are things you say that I agree with, but because of your constant rantings and blaming every issue on Bush, and in this case both sides, most of what you say falls on deaf ears, in my case.
Are some better at dealing with economic issue than others? Sure. And you saying Bush is messing up the economy is your opinion. And I have NO problem with that.
BUT when you say they are working at trashing the economy [on purpose] I don't think most reasonable people would believe that to be a fact. As I said because it would be in neither sides best interest to TRASH the economy. It's my opinion that they all work to keep the economy growing...makes them look good...gets more votes. Whether that ends up being the case, is a whole other subject.
posted on January 28, 2003 02:39:18 PM new
Linda- It may only appear as though they are "hanging in there".
When you sell your loser stock for $1, no sale of stock actually took place. The 401k managing company just shifted on the plan books your money from stocks "sold" to your cash/escrow account. No stocks were actually sold, the managing company is still holding the stocks. Therefore the "sale" had no effect on the market.
posted on January 28, 2003 02:53:08 PM new
Okay...I understand that concept. Maybe the point the analysts were making that IF millions of 401k stock investors all 'traded' out of their stocks then at some point the market has to feel it, because at some point the 'fund management' people wouldn't have the funds to hold all the sold/switched stocks?
I don't know...but I have heard the analysts say they believed it is why stocks haven't retreated more than they have. Thanks for your explanation, it's always appreciated.
========
And on the new URL you've posted.....[haven't read it yet] you're just a ray of sunshine aren't you?
posted on January 28, 2003 03:02:16 PM new
The Federal govt has stepped in before to stop the market from failing due to everyone selling.
When the tech bubble burst the Fed told the brokerage houses they could have all the money they needed. With the cash from the Feds, the brokerage houses didn't have to sell stocks to pay out investors. This intervention stopped the market from falling too far too fast.
These types of actions are why you hear the cry of "class warfare" whenever a politician questions aiding the rich and corporations and not the poor.
posted on January 28, 2003 03:27:00 PM new
>These types of actions are why you hear the cry of "class warfare" whenever a politician questions aiding the rich and corporations and not the poor.
And if everyone else would take the time to put their ears to the business reports as well, when the Republicans accuse the Democrats of trying to get a rise out of Americans with a "class warfare" accusation, you'll know where the truth of the matter is based upon. Simply put, what REAMOND said has beenn in all of the business news reports for quite some time and this is another example of how the Republicans rely upon manipulating your thoughts, rather than educate you with the fatcs to see and to decide for yourselves.
posted on January 28, 2003 03:56:38 PM new
>Borillar - NO, you have it wrong
You are certainly entitled to that opinion, Linda, even if its uninformed.
>There are things you say that I agree with, but because of your constant rantings and blaming every issue on Bush
Bush is not only the Poster-Boy for the Republican Party; he is also its top leader. That makes him Top-Target for blame. I'm hardly the only one to see it that way, either.
>Are some better at dealing with economic issue than others? Sure. And you saying Bush is messing up the economy is your opinion.
It is not an opinion, Linda. It is looking at the facts and understanding not only where we are at, but how we got here that is just as important to a full understanding. This goes a while back, but you have to realize that the Democrats controlled the government for the most part of the last century. The only way for an opposition party to counter them has to say, "Their Way is Good, but Our Way is Better." Yet, even with all of the bad things that the Democrats have had to come over, their way was still the best, economically speaking, because it reached the most people.
But instead of this approach, the Republicans told the people, "We have the Right Way, They have the Wrong Way." That meant that they had to create a whole new way to run things that was totally different than what the reigning Democrats had. The problem is, is that it was all smoke and mirrors, but it didn't mean anything, because they could never hope to have all three branches of government under their thumb and be forced to put their cockamamie ideas into play. So, without caring that their ideas are nonsense and actually bad for the economy, akin to oil tanker captains driving on martinis, they went ahead and continued to sound the drums with their incorrect mantra of economic ideas.
We got a taste of it when Ronald Reagan was in power. They called it Trickle-Down economics, called 'Voodoo Economics' by the economists. But, the Republicans insisted that it would work. After all, they had been hoisting it up for display to the American People long enough. Now they wanted to try it out and prove the economists all wrong. And, Americans decided to give them a chance to let them.
As most of us know, it went the way that the economists told us it would. It was flawed, it was bad, it made the economy a lot worse.
Nowadays, Trickle-Down economics has been not too carefully repackaged with a new label and is being sold to a new generation of voters, who all see the Republicans and Bush in power as a Moral issue. They're neither willing to think or to listen to nay-sayers.
But now the Republicans are in a REAL bind! Not only do they finally have control of all three branches of government, they also have a Moral impetus to put their lies and bullsh1t into practice; otherwise, they'll lose all of those voters. What they obviously said to themselves was, "This will fail, but we'll find a way to shift the blame to someone or somewhere else. We have to go through with this, so let's go do it to the economy." Sure enough, even though it has been a hugely discredited economic theory, Bush and the Republicans are putting it into action.
But, aren't there consequences? Sure there is! But if you have enough money and power to ride it out, well, too bad for those who weren't smart like you were! And you'd expect the Democrats to stand up and to scream, shout, and fight tooth and nail against this plan - wouldn't you? To be sure, some are. For the most part, Democrats in Congress are siding with Republicans on this horribly wrong economic issue, while all of the time, bad-mouthing the process for the cameras. A typical Democratic ploy.
That is why I say that they are all purposely trashing our economy. The Republicans got themselves into a position where they have no excuse now, but to put their lies and distortions into practice in order not to drive away their voters, who voted for them mainly on moral grounds. And the Democrats for the most part seem to have decided to not fight, but switch to the other side. Just listen to Joe Lieberman and others and you'll wonder why they don't just go off to their true political party.
Am I ranting then? No. It just seems like it to you, Linda, because you have not taken the time to analyze the entire process as I have.
posted on January 28, 2003 04:08:07 PM new
Reamond -
The Federal govt has stepped in before to stop the market from failing due to everyone selling.
I'm aware of that.
When the tech bubble burst the Fed told the brokerage houses they could have all the money they needed. With the cash from the Feds, the brokerage houses didn't have to sell stocks to pay out investors. This intervention stopped the market from falling too far too fast.
Yes, I read that.
These types of actions are why you hear the cry of "class warfare" whenever a politician questions aiding the rich and corporations and not the poor. Yes I know. I believe the dems do try to make this a 'class warfare' issue. My position is that IF [which recent figures verify] 50+% of Americans have stock in their 401k portfolios then when these above items are implimented they are benefitting 50+% of the population. That's not rich vs poor imo.
posted on January 28, 2003 04:20:14 PM new
Borillar - It just seems like it to you, Linda, because you have not taken the time to analyze the entire process as I have.
You have NO idea what I've taken the time to do in ANY area. That's pretty arrogant of you to say that.
I have, I read all 'slants' to issues and form my own decision on what appears most plausable to me.
Just because you believe you analyzed the entire process doesn't mean other haven't also done the same and come to a different conclusion.
posted on January 28, 2003 06:58:39 PM new
They say that a huge % of American public is shareholders, they say that in Australia too.
But a recent claim I heard was that 25% of Australians have a total 'worth' of less than AU$7,000, that's approx US$4,200. I think it is fair to assume that not a very high number of those are likely to BUY shares (although some do) or entice any representation with political contributions to sway domestic OR foreign policy in their favour.
.
.
Take from that the estimated (Professor William Northouse, Prof of Economics at Yale) US$1,000-$20,000per family 'WHEN' full scale war happens in Iraq.
.
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American Leadership can do whatever it wants to help domestic shareholders, but given that the Middle East, allegedly holds 2/3's of the world's current oil supplies and America consumes 25%, then UNLESS the Middle East looses control of it's oil then collectively Americans will be the ones to be MOST affected by oil price fluctuations/manipulations.
It’s a tough choice,
$1K-$20K/Family (assuming war confined to Iraq & no major use of Chem’ or Bio’ Weapons)
OR
Oil Price fluctuations out of America’s Control.
I’m sure that those with some oil control will still be able to eat, but some of the others will be looking for dimes or scraps.
(can’t help myself have to make a joke)
I think that at the end the God of Economics is a great leveller, and she WILL create a New World Order.
If it’s any consolation our Prime Minister says that we will be right there with you.
posted on January 29, 2003 06:47:27 AM new
Scanned the article. Yes, thing's are a lot worst then people think and will get even worst in the next couple months.
GE had a 2 day strike a couple weeks ago. It was because of a rise the company was to charge for medical coverage even before the last contract was to end.
Talked to a friend yesterday, He (a Teamster, Truck driver) Says they are talking about striking in April for the same basic reason. He tells me freight is way down. A lot of the small companies they picked up from are "Out of Business"
We see all this crap about Wall St. and big business but very little about the small businessman. They are the heart and soul of the American or any other economy. They are dying off.
It will be a domino effect. It's already started and will pick up speed quickly.
The lost of public confidence has been the greatest destroyer of the Economy. This because of the Scumbag CEO's and there cronies.
Until these people are prosecuted to the fullest extent. We will have no confidence, no upsurge in growth. We will be in a recession (depression).
posted on January 29, 2003 07:01:18 AM newI think it is fair to assume that not a very high number of those are likely to BUY shares (although some do) or entice any representation with political contributions to sway domestic OR foreign policy in their favour.
I think it is UNFAIR to assume anything. IMO, it's much better to research the FACTS and assume nothing.
There are many people who are invested in the stock market who would in no way be considered 'rich'. For example, we have two sons, age 33 and 31 and both have invested every extra penny that they've been able to into the stock market [one via their 401k]. They both are a very long way from being rich. Many low and average income people are invested in the stock market.
The prices have continued to go up. Gold sold for right at $800.00 an ounce in the late 70s, early 80s.
