posted on January 19, 2004 06:32:41 PM new
an. 19, 2004, 8:16PM
Kerry seizes early lead in Iowa; Dean in third place
Associated Press
DES MOINES, Iowa -- John Kerry seized the lead as Iowa Democrats began their first-in-the-nation voting today, the initial step in the battle to face President Bush this fall. In another surprise, John Edwards was nipping at his heels.
"On to New Hampshire," said former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who, in third place, said it looked like Kerry would win.
Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, winner of the 1988 caucuses, was falling short of the victory he needs to stay politically viable.
"We in Iowa are marking the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency," Kerry, Massachusetts' junior senator told supporters in Ames, Iowa, his voice hoarse and halting. "That's what this is all about."
Just weeks ago, before the Iowa race turned testy and tumultuous, Dean was the undisputed front-runner -- and anything less than a victory for him would reshape the crowded field.
A survey of caucus-goers, done for The Associated Press and the networks to measure initial preferences, showed Kerry got an especially strong boost from voters who said the "right experience" was the most important candidate quality -- a theme the four-term senator pounded home in the race's final days.
More than half told pollsters they decided to support him on Monday night, a sign his last-minute surge may have overtaken the vaunted political organizations of Dean and Gephardt.
The entrance poll showed Kerry reaping the benefits of Gephardt's poorer-than-expected showing. Of the people who came to the caucuses backing the Missouri lawmaker -- about 16 percent of the total -- 24 percent named Kerry as their second choice and 24 percent named Edwards.
Dean, a poloraizing figure prone to misteps and controversy in the race's final days, was the second choice of just 5 percent.
"We were pretty much the target of everybody for some time," Dean told CNN.
With 51 percent of the precincts reporting, Kerry led with 37.4 percent of the vote, followed by Edwards at 32.6 percent. Dean had just 18 percent, Gephardt 10.9 percent and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 0.9 percent.
With pre-caucus polls showing the race a dead heat, Dean, Edwards, Gephardt and Kerry fought for the state's 45 delegates -- out of 2,162 needed to claim the nomination -- and for momentum heading into New Hampshire's primary eight days later.
Dean, after two weeks of political combat that took a toll, had hoped to re-establish his credentials as front-runner even as polls in Iowa showed a four-way statistical tie. Gephardt, winner of the 1988 caucuses, would be unlikely to continue his campaign if defeated here.
Expectations were lower for Edwards and Kerry, thus a solid showing would give them momentum for the New Hampshire primary and the seven-state follow-up Feb. 3. Victory would send them surging.
"I think we're going to win," Dean said hours before voting began, before hedging his bets: "No matter what happens, we're going to have more to do."
Caucuses started late in schools, libraries, living rooms and other 1,993 precincts due to the volume of people attending. Democrats ran out of registration forms at Precinct 21 in Iowa City; at least 100 people were still lined up on the sidewalk outside the Horace Mann school.
Dianne Dillon-Ridgely, a veteran caucus-goer, said, "this is bigger than anything I've ever seen. We're not going to have enough room in here."
Dean entered the year a clear front-runner but lost his lead in Iowa and saw it shrink in New Hampshire after a rough two weeks. Stung by criticism of his record on race relations, Medicare and trade, Dean said a week ago he was tired of being the party's "pin cushion," and suddenly looked weak to voters drawn to his blustery image.
Gephardt gambled a few days later with an ad highly critical of Dean. The front-runner's approval rating dropped. Voters who started second-guessing Dean drifted to Edwards or Kerry. Suddenly, it was a four-way race.
Kerry was ahead because he did well among older voters, men, independents and moderates, while he was competitive among other groups like liberals, who made up six in 10 voters, and those who were strongly disapproved of the war with Iraq.
That was a blow to Dean, whose rose from rank obscurity to front-runner on the strength of his anti-war views.
In their caucuses, local Democrats elect county convention delegates, reflecting their presidential preferences, then discuss platform issues and elect precinct leaders. The process favors candidates with broad organizations that reach into each of the state's 99 counties.
Gephardt had hundreds of professional union organizers working the streets while Dean had thousands of volunteers, many of them political novices drawn to his campaign through the Internet and traveling to Iowa at their own expense, fed from vending machines and housed in remote cabins.
Although Dean used blunt language and you-have-the-power rhetoric to fire up an anti-war, antiestablishment base, many of his youthful organizers in Iowa looked more for adventure than a fight.
Gephardt was upbeat and calm on the campaign trail, but his blue-collar foot soldiers were motivated by fear and anger in an unsteady economy.
Kerry and Edwards had solid organizations, but nothing to match Dean or Gephardt. Their strategy was to have momentum override the disadvantage.
After Iowa and New Hampshire, Democrats turn their attention to an unprecedented rush of primaries starting Feb. 3 with South Carolina, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, Missouri, Delaware and North Dakota. Democratic leaders designed the front-loaded calendar in hopes of having a presumptive nominee by mid-March.
Most candidates see Iowa as a tempting jumping-off point.
Jimmy Carter was a little-known Georgia governor when his 1976 Iowa campaign catapulted him onto the national scene and put the caucuses on the political map.
Since then, Iowa has been an important but often unreliable barometer of presidential mettle.
For every eventual nominee who has won Iowa -- Republican Bob Dole in 1996 and Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984 -- the state has yielded many more surprises.
Ronald Reagan lost in 1980, and his foe, George H.W. Bush, declared he had "Big Mo" heading into New Hampshire. Bush's momentum dissipated in a high-stakes debate there, and Reagan went on to win the nomination.
Al Gore, heading for a last-place finish in Iowa in 1988, left the state to campaign elsewhere, dismissing the caucus as "a real arcane procedure that produces crazy results." Twelve years later, Gore returned as vice president to beat rival Bill Bradley and go on to the nomination.
