bigpeepa
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posted on August 24, 2004 04:19:09 PM new
Hello All Democrats. We are winning but still need to work hard and get every vote we can. Any way you can get votes and votes and more votes for Kerry/Edwards. The aritcal below was posted on AOL just a little while ago. In just a little over 2 months we will elect Kerry/Edwards if we work hard.
At first glance, John Kerry's numbers look even better than they did during the Democratic Convention. But his lead may be more fragile than it seems.
In the latest Zogby Interactive poll, President Bush musters a lead in just two battleground states. The other 14 states in the poll go to Mr. Kerry, giving him his biggest lead -- in terms of the number of states -- since Zogby began conducting twice-a-month polls for WSJ.com in late May.
If these results were to play out on Election Day, Mr. Kerry would score an easy victory. But there are a lot of caveats to consider. First, let's run the numbers.
To analyze Zogby's results, we start by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battlegrounds poll will vote for the same political party that they did in the 2000 election. That gives Mr. Bush 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry 172 votes. A total of 177 votes are up for grabs in the 16 battlegrounds; a candidate needs 270 to win the White House.
Adding the 152 votes from the 14 states that Mr. Kerry leads in the latest poll gives him a total of 324 electoral votes. (That's his highest total yet in our analyses of Zogby's polls, topping the previous high of 322 electoral votes that he had in on July 12.) Mr. Bush's two states have 25 electoral votes and give him a total of 214.
Still, there are a lot of reasons to view Mr. Kerry's lead with caution.
More From WSJ.com
For instance, Mr. Kerry's lead narrowed in five states since the Aug. 2 poll, moving inside the margin of error in two relative strongholds, Michigan and Minnesota. Mr. Bush increased his lead in Ohio, moving outside the margin of error for the first time since June.
All told, Mr. Kerry's lead is outside the margin in just three states -- Pennsylvania, Oregon and Washington -- and the president in just Ohio. If one considers only those results that are outside the margins of error, Mr. Kerry would cling to a lead of just 211-209 -- with 118 votes still up for grabs.
In two crucial states -- Florida and Missouri -- Mr. Kerry's lead is tiny -- less than a percentage point. If both of those states, which have moved back and forth between the candidates over the course of Zogby's polling were to go Mr. Bush's way in the end, Mr. Kerry's lead would shrink to 286-252.
Finally, in five states, the Massachusetts senator leads by fewer than three percentage points. If all of those states went to Mr. Bush on Election Day, the president would win the election 274-264.
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cyberseller01
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posted on August 24, 2004 05:13:35 PM new
I'm a Democrat but I will be voting for Ralph Nader. John Kerry is for the war in Iraq, he's against gay marriage and he's bought and sold by special interests. These make it unacceptable for me to vote for John Kerry and I will be voting for Ralph Nader as a protest. I will vote for Democrats when they start acting like Democrats.
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blairwitch
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posted on August 24, 2004 05:53:28 PM new
Kerry is pulling even in several bush states according to the new set of zogby polls including Nevada, Missouri, Tennessee, Colorado, and Arkansas. Kerry is guaranteed all the gore states.....he only needs 10 more to win.
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Reamond
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posted on August 24, 2004 07:44:38 PM new
I'm a Democrat but I will be voting for Ralph Nader.
Why don't you just say you're for electing Bush , becuase that's what you're doing.
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yeager
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posted on August 24, 2004 07:55:23 PM new
I agree with Reamond. You are throwing the baby out with the bath water when you vote for Nader. Even though you have the right to vote for whomever you would like to, an emotional vote is a loosing vote. Anyone can vote for any third party candidate, or somebody less popular than Nader if they wish. But that is like betting money on a race horse with a sprained ankle. No offense here, but hope you can understand! 
Bigots are miserable people.  Prevent Bigotry through Education.
Work to keep Church and State separate! http://www.au.org/site/PageServer
This long time republican is voting for John Kerry!
[ edited by yeager on Aug 24, 2004 07:56 PM ]
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bigpeepa
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posted on August 24, 2004 08:02:05 PM new
cyberseller01, Yes the Dem's need to get smarter on a lot of issues. I can understand why you want to make a protest vote. The only problem I see is if Bush gets in again he will push a lot of very conservative Federal laws through. If Bush doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected, I fear what he and Cheney will do. Remember Bush's base are the BORN AGAIN. I am betting you already know what that bunch thinks about gay marriage. Kerry will not push for Federal laws against Gay marriage only Bush will. Kerry has already said gay marriage should be a state issue not an issue for the Federal Government.
If Nader stood a change at winning, I would vote for him also. With 4 more years of Bush/Cheney looking me in the face I can not afford to vote for Nader. Simply put for me, I already know what Bush/Cheney are like. I really don't like how they are running this great country. Will Kerry be a great President? I don't know but I am sure as Hell willing to give him a try
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yeager
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posted on August 24, 2004 09:11:01 PM new
bigpee,
Exactly! If you pushed button A, and you don't like the results, then push button B to see what you will get. You already know what A stands for and it isn't working out. There is at least a chance of having something different with button B.
Bigots are miserable people. Prevent Bigotry through Education.
Work to keep Church and State separate! http://www.au.org/site/PageServer
This long time republican is voting for John Kerry!
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profe51
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posted on August 24, 2004 09:38:23 PM new
I'm a Democrat but I will be voting for Ralph Nader
If voting your conscience is the most important thing for you, then by all means, vote for Nader. For me, defeating Bush is paramount, and for that reason alone, I'll be voting for Kerry. Nader simply cannot win, but he can give the election to Bush, like he did in 2000. A vote for him is a vote for Bush. Why do you suppose Republicans are fighting so hard to get him on the ballot in the few states he's in?
___________________________________
Our `neoconservatives' are neither new nor conservative, but old as Bablyon
and evil as Hell." --Edward Abbey
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davebraun
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posted on August 24, 2004 09:46:04 PM new
I'm with prof on this one. Kerry was not my first choice for the nomination but I am a realist. I am voting for him and working in his campaign as a volunteer.
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yellowstone
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posted on August 24, 2004 09:46:58 PM new
Bigpeepa
I just noticed something very interestingly funny about this thread, it's the title. It reads DEMOCRARS WE ARE WINNING etc. Were you trying to write DEMOCZARS as in COMUCRATS or COMMUNISTS??
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bunnicula
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posted on August 24, 2004 09:54:42 PM new
yawn...
____________________
"Bad temper is its own scourge. Few things are more bitter than to feel bitter. A man's venom poisons himself more than his victim." --Charles Buxton
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cyberseller01
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posted on August 24, 2004 10:30:06 PM new
I never said Ralph Nader will win. My complaint is that John Kerry is not much different than Bush and I refuse to vote for Kerry. What good is a Democrat who acts like a Republican? As far as I'm concerned, Ralph Nader is the only Democrat on the ballot. If want more reasons to for Nader you can find them here http://www.votenader.com/
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Twelvepole
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posted on August 25, 2004 06:22:09 AM new
cyberseller, as much as I would like to see you vote for President Bush, Ralph Nader is a valid third choice and you should vote how you see fit.
I voted for Perot in '92 even though I knew that Clinton had won already...
BTW I see where he is now going to be on the ballot in Oregon... should be an interesting election overall.
Democrats have decided that a third choice is not valid and are blocking Nader every chance they get.
AIN'T LIFE GRAND... 
Re-Elect President Bush... the only true choice.
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bigpeepa
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posted on August 25, 2004 07:41:39 AM new
Yellowstone, Since you wrote the word communists. Under Geo Bush the economy in Communists countries like China is booming. Under Geo Bush in America we have millions without jobs and Health care.
Twelvetoes, I see you gave advice to cyberseller about voting. Now today you are supporting the republican Geo.Bush. Geo Bush wants to change the Constitution outlawing Gay Marriage. He wants to make Federal Laws against gay marriage. What are your views on gay marriage?
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Reamond
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posted on August 25, 2004 08:22:22 AM new
Just heard on the news that housing starts dropped 3x what was expected and sales of existing housing fell for the last two months too.
Lowest interest rates in half a century and sales are dropping ?
I guess if you don't have a job or your new Bush job pays less and is part time it doesn't make any difference how low interest rates are.
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logansdad
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posted on August 25, 2004 08:28:45 AM new
Reamond, the Republicans refuse to look at the econonmy, and the job market. They instead want to focus on something that happened over 30 years ago.
Why is that? It is because they know Bush's programs and tax cuts have not helped the economy. What else can he run on - the Iraq War. That is getting old as well. He captured Saddam but has yet to find Bin Laden. Is he any close to finding him today than he was on 9/12/01?
Let's have a BBQ, Texas style, ROAST BUSH
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YOU CAN'T HAVE BULLSH** WITH OUT BUSH.
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We the people, in order to form a more perfect Union....
.....one Nation indivisible, With Liberty and Justice for ALL.
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Reamond
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posted on August 25, 2004 08:39:50 AM new
Bush and the republicans giving huge tax cuts to people that have more wealth than anyone could spend in a life time was totally stupid too.
They need to get large tax cuts into the hands of middle class consumers just as Kerry wants to do.
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Libra63
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posted on August 25, 2004 09:06:47 AM new
You know Reamond Democrates have great wealth also. Or has it slipped your mind. i.e. John Kerry, John Edwards to name a couple...
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Reamond
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posted on August 25, 2004 09:09:49 AM new
Who said there aren't wealthy Democrats ? I said it was Bush and the republicans that gave them the cuts.
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Libra63
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posted on August 25, 2004 09:12:01 AM new
BTW John Kerry is against gay marriages also.
You democrats, I hate that statement but you used you republicans, should be way ahead in the polls if John Kerry has so many votes. Your convention is overwith and he didn't get much of a jump in the polls so I think the democrats would be a little worried.
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blairwitch
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posted on August 25, 2004 10:36:14 AM new
Actually Bush should be way ahead being a war president. I predict a record turnout at the polls and a major Kerry victory. They say kerry always wins in the end....lets see if it happens in november.
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Reamond
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posted on August 25, 2004 10:51:31 AM new
No president has ever won a second term with favorable ratings as low as Bush's.
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BIGPEEPA
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posted on August 25, 2004 02:50:03 PM new
Libera63, If you support Bush than you must also support, Geo Bush changing the Constitution outlawing Gay Marriage. What are your views about that?
DEMOCRATS ARE INVITING ALL REPUBLICANS TO VOTE FOR KERRY/EDWARDS. TOGETHER WE CAN MAKE HISTORY AND MAKE A MUCH BETTER AMERICA.
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Bear1949
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posted on August 25, 2004 08:33:15 PM new
You're right the demo party needs more mindless drones. All those illegal aliens need that support.
Hey, hey
Ho, ho
Kerry - sign the 1-8-0
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Libra63
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posted on August 25, 2004 08:44:14 PM new
Bigpeepa I think I have answered this in a couple of the gay threads but I will say it again. I do NOT believe in gay marriages.
If they want to call it a gay union than that would be fine with me. So you see I am not against the gays as I am sure there are many people like that but two people of the same sex in my mind is not a marriage. JMHO
I forgot to add there is nothing I can do about changing the constitution except call my congressperson and tell them my opinion. It is up to them how they vote. Our voice is only as good as the people that represent me. This is why we elect the people to congress.
[ edited by Libra63 on Aug 25, 2004 08:48 PM ]
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Linda_K
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posted on August 25, 2004 08:49:24 PM new
They instead want to focus on something that happened over 30 years ago. Why is that?
Because kerry has made it the central point in his 2004 election campaign. There's hardly a quote on any subject where he doesn't mention is service. kerry brought his service up ever since he first returned from VN.
He thought he'd get both the votes from the anti-war folks...AND the moderate dems/republicans.
Don't think HIS choice is working out like he thought it would.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
"One thing is for sure: the extremists have faith in our weakness. And the weaker we are, the more they will come after us." --Tony Blair
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
"The War on Terror will not be won until America is united. And as long as Democrats target the Bush administration -- not the terrorists -- as the enemy, we are in trouble." --Oliver North
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Those are only two reasons why we need to:
Re-elect President Bush!!!
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yeager
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posted on August 26, 2004 12:56:16 AM new
Linda,
Shouldn't your sig line say, Reinstall Bush?
In the fact that he didn't win the election, but was installed by the Supreme Court.
Bigots are miserable people. Prevent Bigotry through Education.
Work to keep Church and State separate! http://www.au.org/site/PageServer
This long time republican is voting for John Kerry!
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bigpeepa
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posted on August 26, 2004 03:16:06 AM new
Libera63, Your words, "I do not believe in gay marriage." Its good to see that Dick Cheney agrees with John Kerry that gay marriage should be a state issue not a Federal issue. Only Geo Bush and his base the religious right and people like you want to change the Constitution outlawing Gay Marriage. Bush wanting to change the Constitution is just one of so many reasons Bush is losing this election.
MILLIONS OF CLEAR THINKING PEOPLE ARE INVITING OTHER CLEAR THINKING PEOPLE TO VOTE FOR KERRY/EDWARDS. AMERICA NEEDS TO END THE BUSH ERA.
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CBlev65252
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posted on August 26, 2004 04:18:30 AM new
bigpeepa
I'm doing my part by volunteering at Kerry's campaign headquarters here in Cleveland, OH. It's actually been fun and I've met a lot of great people. It's also convenient since I volunteer for Dennis Kucinich's bid for re-election to Congress and his office is next door. Yes, they know right where to find me.
Cheryl
. . .if you still try to defend the infamies and horrors perpetrated by that Antichrist- I really believe he is Antichrist- I will have nothing more to do with you and you are no longer my friend.. . - War and Peace, Tolstoy
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Libra63
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posted on August 26, 2004 08:41:51 AM new
So bigpeepa what is wrong with my statement? I don't find anything wrong with that. If the population of the states waht to change the law that is fine with me but I won't vote for gay marriages but I will for gay unions.
Give me your opinion on this issue.
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