posted on September 14, 2004 09:57:51 PM newThe Kerry Campaign Stomachache
WASHINGTON, Sept. 13, 2004
In the swirl of political news in the past week, one event was almost uncovered. Teresa Heinz Kerry, the woman whose tough talk was distinctly off message at the nicey-nice Democratic convention in July, was checked into a hospital in Iowa with a tummy ache. She was released pretty fast and the medical emergency over Labor Day weekend paled in comparison to the focus on the bypass surgery going on in New York.
But as a metaphor for the stress affecting camp Kerry and the overreaction of a lot of Democrats, it is worth noting. Even the most diehard Kerry insiders have switched from saying they had "weathered August well" to admitting that they had a "tough month", while Bush had a "good convention and a bit of a bounce." But a lot of Democrats still have the scalpels out and are very unsure that even a brilliant surgeon can save the patient.
The Bush bounce is not just a six-or-so point lead in the horserace. It is reflected in a series of underlying numbers that are causing Democrats to have sympathetic chest pains with the ex-president. George Bush not only holds big advantages over John Kerry on handling terrorism, his ability to deal with an international crisis and having strong qualities of leadership, but also in having clear positions and a plan for the future.
In the CBS News poll conducted September 6, 7, and 8th, Bush is also equal to Kerry on sharing the priorities of the average person, something Democrats (including Kerry up until recently) typically score well on.
One unusually honest Kerry insider told me last week that he was unsure whether the race had been "fundamentally altered," or whether the dark days of August can be overcome by paid media, external events and some solid campaigning. If the Bush bounce is deflated in the next few weeks (and some polls are suggesting that it is coming down a bit) and the Kerry camp can catch a few breaks, the upcoming debates may put those swing voters that everyone has been watching for a long time back in play.
But one of the "fundamentals" worrying Democrats are the results of the question, "Do you think the country is going in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?" This summer the right-direction numbers started to rise and that spells trouble for a candidate preaching change. (As a sign of how desperate Democrats have become, this week one media consultant said wistfully that maybe one more hurricane in Florida might turn those right direction-wrong track numbers around and give Kerry a fighting chance in the not-so-sunny state. But then all the federal aid and the name Jeb Bush came to mind and the Democrat got wistful. "He’s really been doing a very good job dealing with that hurricane stuff. That can’t be good for us. Sigh…"
As for the other battleground states, Republicans say that Kerry will have to concentrate his resources on fewer than the 19 that have been in play so far. In fact, this week Kerry and the Democrats started advertising in only 13 of the big 19, although they have “reserved time” in the other six (Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Colorado, Missouri and North Carolina).
My Kerry insider agrees that in the end the race will come down to a dozen states; Bush pollster Matthew Dowd puts it closer to 9. But for now the Kerry folks want to watch the bigger group to see where the afterglow of Bush’s August will subside.
A CBS News estimate gives Kerry a solid 157 electoral votes and a good chance at another 50 bringing his total of liklies to 207. But the next 63 will have to come from the roughly 109 electoral votes in nine states which are now dead even or leaning to George Bush.
As the Kerry campaign tries to get on its own right track, it will have to overcome the distractions of "What Did you do in the War Daddy?" and Kitty Kelly’s "Dynasty Revisitied." Kerry’s own voters still feel more intensely about Bush than they do about Kerry and his campaign has to come up with a less nuanced message and a candidate who can convince the electorate that he is capable of delivering on it. So far, he hasn’t made the sale.