posted on November 2, 2004 03:28:42 PM new
Early Exit
Kerry leads.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:49 PM PT
The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:
Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45
Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50
New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51
Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53
Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.
For an explanation of why Slate is posting exit-poll numbers, see the previous post, below. ... 12:15 p.m. PT
Exit Poll Charade: Why Slate is posting the exit-poll numbers: As this item posts, the first raw exit-poll data are streaming from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers—big city newspapers and other broadcasters.
These early exit-poll numbers do not divine the name of the winner. Instead, regard these numbers as a sportswriter does the line scores from the fourth inning of a baseball game. The leading team might win the game, but then again it might not. But having the early data in front of him helps the sportswriter plot the story he thinks he'll need to write at game's end.
Continue Article
As you read this posting, the political reporters at the networks, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, NPR, Newsweek, and about two dozen other news outlets are cracking their knuckles over their keyboards, contemplating the story, while statisticians and political analysts at the networks prepare to run the numbers through their computer models to generate a prediction.
The paid users of exit-poll data have signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes, and the networks have promised not to call any states before their polls close. But the numbers always leak out to other journalists—such as the writers at Slate—and starting at about 5 p.m. ET or so, the news anchors start giving clues about what they've learned from the exit-poll results. As John Tierney writes in today's New York Times, the result on television is sometimes like a "version of the Dance of the Seven Veils, in which anchors or correspondents will pretend not to know what's happening in a state but give enough clues for the discerning viewer. They might allude to the high spirits at one campaign headquarters, or start speculating about what effect the loss of this state would have on the other candidate."
In the 2003 gubernatorial election in California, the networks kept their solemn oath not to call the winner until polls closed at 11 p.m. ET. Just the same, CBS News' Dan Rather telegraphed his findings in this 6:30 p.m. ET broadcast.
With voting still under way in the California governor recall election, CBS News exit polls, for whatever, if anything, they may be worth, now indicate many voters made up their minds weeks ago. … If [Gov. Gray Davis] is recalled, there are widespread expectations—again, for whatever they may be worth—that Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger would replace Davis.
On CNBC, John Seigenthaler maintained a straight face in the 7 p.m. ET time slot as he divulged these exit-poll results: "Nearly three-quarters of California voters, 73 percent, say they disapprove of [Gov. Gray Davis'] job performance." Need he have drawn a picture? Meanwhile, MSNBC and Fox indulged in similar mugging. Watch the airwaves for such giveaways this evening.
Slate believes its readers should know as much about the unfolding election as the anchors and other journalists, so given the proviso that the early numbers are no more conclusive than the midpoint score of a baseball game, we're publishing the exit-poll numbers as we receive them. Some people say it's irresponsible to publish the numbers—or broadcast early projections of winners—because it may disturb voter turnout. As Slate Editor Jacob Weisberg put it in today's Times, he doesn't want to put the Web site "in the paternalistic position of deciding that our readers aren't mature enough to react in the proper way to truthful information we possess."
Watch this space. … 11:50 a.m. PT
Jack Shafer is Slate's editor at large.
Photo by Brian Snyder/Reuters.
posted on November 2, 2004 03:47:32 PM new
Obviously Kerry will win in all those states, so if you are a Democrat and haven't voted yet, just forget it. There is no need for your vote!
--------------------------------------
We do not stop playing because we grow old. We grow old because we stop playing -- Anonymous
posted on November 2, 2004 04:06:04 PM new
I must have received a dozen phone calls today urging me to vote. I voted at 7:30 a.m. I also had someone come to my door to make sure I got out to vote and offering rides to those who cannot get to the polls. They are coming out in record numbers here in Ohio. It's really great to see all these people exercising their right to vote. Too bad this is what it took.
Cheryl
Protect the environment. Plant a tree and remove a Bush.
posted on November 2, 2004 04:19:08 PM new
I also just had someone stop by to ask if I had voted or did I need a ride to the poll... actually the second person to come by today. I voted this morning after the working stiffs had to be behind the desk. Took me all of 15 minutes. No exit pollsters to be seen.
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
[ edited by fenix03 on Nov 2, 2004 04:19 PM ]
posted on November 2, 2004 04:19:56 PM new
Regardless of the turnout or the outcome of this election, I am still bothered by the number of Americans who support George Bush after he has failed this country in every way imaginable.
posted on November 2, 2004 04:49:34 PM new
" I am still bothered by the number of Americans who support George Bush..."
Support a President who has indeed made a few mistakes, yet is consistent, honest, and is working for the best interests and safety of this country?
As opposed to a phony, pampered, U.N.-loving, flip-flopping, admitted war criminal, who never had a productive vote in his long political history, and is ready to sell us all out to please an "international test"???
Yeah, that confuses me too.
--------------------------------------
We do not stop playing because we grow old. We grow old because we stop playing -- Anonymous
posted on November 2, 2004 05:32:57 PM new
Kerry is kicking butt in Ohio. Young voters and minorities in exit polls chose Kerry. He's leading among liberal and moderate voters by a huge margin. Kerry will take Ohio.
Cheryl
Protect the environment. Plant a tree and remove a Bush.
posted on November 2, 2004 05:34:43 PM new
Made a few mistakes??? You have to be kidding. You obviously didn't watch Fahrenheit 911. If you did, you would have seen American Soldiers hung from a scaffold after they were killed in action. Let's not forget to mention the one being drug through the streets half naked.
Honest? You must be gullible. Starts a war and attacks a country that was no immediate threat to the US. Then gives Haliburton a no bid contract to supply the need of the troops several war related items.
Working in the best interest of the country. So to you that must mean having the rest of the world view the US as an arrogant military bully.
Consistent. Yes! He is consistently a liar, side stepper, and a FAILURE.
Bigots are miserable people. Prevent Bigotry through Education.
posted on November 2, 2004 05:35:18 PM newRegardless of the turnout or the outcome of this election, I am still bothered by the number of Americans who support George Bush after he has failed this country in every way imaginable.
Helen, I don't understand this statement. Everyone, and you, have their own opinions. Many vary significantly from each other. They cannot all think like you.
I'm not 'bothered' by the number of Americans who support John Kerry, who went to a war (for 4 months) and came home to tell America, how is fellow soldiers were committing atrocities, and went 'Anti War', I'm sure upsetting a lot of vets (one is Mike, who remembers him quite well from then, and was pissed)
Ok we have company, so I won't be here (aren't ya'll lucky ), may the best candidate win.
posted on November 2, 2004 06:21:24 PM new
"Kerry is kicking butt in Ohio."
From CNN, 9:15pm EST:
Ohio: Bush 53% Kerry 47%
Kicking WHOSE butt?
"Starts a war and attacks a country that was no immediate threat to the US."
Not according to the best intelligence at the time, and the matching opinion of the Clinton administration. And whether Saddam was an imminent threat or not, we showed the world that that we won't sit around and let dictators mass-murder innocent people.
"Then gives Haliburton a no bid contract to supply the need of the troops several war related items."
Was there another company that could have done it within the necessary timeframe? If there was, why haven't we heard about it?
"So to you that must mean having the rest of the world view the US as an arrogant military bully"
I don't have a problem with that, and what bothers ME is that so many people do have a problem with it. We are the most powerful, richest nation on the Earth. We are the world leaders. Most countries follow our lead whether they LIKE us or not.
I for one, don't give a rat's rear-end what France and Germany think about us. They'll do what we say simply because it's in their best interests to do so.
But it doesn't matterm cause Bush is gonna get 4 more years, and THEN what'cha gonna say about it? Four more years of whining from you guys!
--------------------------------------
We do not stop playing because we grow old. We grow old because we stop playing -- Anonymous
posted on November 2, 2004 07:54:29 PM new
CNN says KERRY gets Pennsylvania! by a wide margin. At this time Kerry 57 o/o, Bush 45 o/o.
Bigots are miserable people. Prevent Bigotry through Education.
posted on November 2, 2004 08:07:10 PM new
Kerry just got Californie, which gave him a big electoral boost, but I think that may the last one he gets. Most of the western states have been predicted for Bush.
Which leaves Ohio and Florida as everyone expected. Both currently have Bush 4-5 points ahead.
I'm an Ohioan... We'll do the "right" thing!
--------------------------------------
We do not stop playing because we grow old. We grow old because we stop playing -- Anonymous
posted on November 2, 2004 08:14:15 PM new
TEXAS GOES TO NADER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SORRY,A MISTAKE !!!
-sig file -------Life is one big happy 'All You Can Eat' buffet .
posted on November 2, 2004 08:31:48 PM new
Replay - Where are Oregon and Washington on your map?
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on November 2, 2004 08:33:08 PM new
In the "who cares" section!
But seriously... WA has only 3% of the precincts in and Bush is only down by FOUR HUNDRED votes (I'm looking at Yahoo Right now, they seem to be ahead of CNN) I don't know how they estimate that it's a done deal with only 3% of the votes counted.
posted on November 2, 2004 09:20:40 PM new
If you want to see something really interesting - look at the FoxNews.com map which has not yet called California but has called Washington you'll be very struck by the fact that they have called Washington for Kerry despite the fact that when you click to see the actual numbers it has a check by Kerry's name but more votes for Bush with 11% reporting.
George W. Bush Republican 390,656 (50%)
John F. Kerry Democrat 382,449 (49%)
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on November 3, 2004 08:29:38 AM new
Now all we can hope is those idiots Michael Moore and Al Frankin crawl back into their holes with Hellen, Cowfarm, Tomwii and Reamond.
.
.
.
Alive in 2005
Prevent Bigotry through Education.
), may the best candidate win.
