posted on February 16, 2003 08:12:10 AM new
A thought that I'll run past you.
The US and this administration even more so do not initiate strategic change. They react to it. Even the current idea of preemptive strike is only a reactive surface strategy.
The Orientals on the other hand have a long tradition of deep layers of subtle manipulation in warfare.
Who can control the North Koreans if anyone can? The Chinese. It would not surprise me if the North Koreans are making all this fuss and noise now at the instruction of the Chinese and when the US is tied up in Iraq and Korea, not to mention Afghanistan and other obligations they will rush across the straights and take Taiwan. The US might nuke the crap out of Korea but the Chinese with 12 to 18 warheads that will reach the US they won't most would think - including the Chinese. Hard to believe they'd trade ONE city for Taiwan much less 12. And the Chinese would use them on cities not military targets. They know which would have greater leverage with our culture.
If you see them come across the DMZ expect it.
posted on February 16, 2003 08:35:46 AM new
My thoughts - When the Iraq thing started...followed by NK admitting to continuing with their WOMD program...I've wondered if NK and Iraq weren't in kahoots. NK sells weapons...Iraq wants to buy...and I believe is buying. To me, each time the Iraq war was spoken of...NK seemed to issue a new threat/statement.
Agreed the Chinese could control/have great influence over NK. They don't appear to be putting much pressure on them at this time. But I have read that the people escaping from NK to China are being sent back...usually to their deaths.
China and Taiwan - Yes, this would be the best time for them to step in and overtake Taiwan. If the world feels they don't want to participate in keeping a communist country from overtaking them, and we are already over extended...then it most likely will happen.
Also read recently that Japan is re-visiting their position of nuclear arms because of the situation in NK.
posted on February 16, 2003 08:43:42 AM new
Nuclear weapons are 1940's technology.
Would not surprise me to see all kinds of innovative technology come out from under wraps if anyone actually became a threat to Japan.
posted on February 16, 2003 09:47:41 AM new
I don't really have a position.
It would be nice to have the power to have a position, but in the absence of power it is meaningless. I know how I treat other people, but it's not the way nations treat nations, and I don't expect them to have morals.
I suspect that Taiwan used to be much more important to the United States than it is today.
They may give lip service to approving of their form of government, but the truth is a heavy trade with a bigger nation of a disapproved form of government is more important than a lesser trade with one that has closer ideological view.
I think they will only defend them so far.
Unless Bush is really more irrational and willing to gamble with our lives than even his worst detractors think.
I'd add - I never thought there was all that much difference between the two. The Taiwanese are pretty darn heavy handed with their own people if you look into it, and the Chinese are even harsher. But the low value they put on human life is a feature of their history and culture from way before communism. It's all about who is boss and no big ideological contest any more than US politics is. They'd rather make it sound principled than admit it's all money grubbing.
posted on February 16, 2003 10:06:44 AM new
Thanks.
What are your thoughts on the NK issue as far as should the US stay out of it and let the whole UN try and get them to once again honor their agreement? Or just let them go forward with their plans to build up their program of WOMDs? Clinton tried 'paying' them not to start a program....now we see that didn't work.
So...what to do now is the quesion. It appears to me Bush is waiting to see if other countries will 'step up to the plate'....and NKs leader sounds to me like he doesn't want to deal with the UN. Only the US. Most think Bush want's to nuke them. I don't....but wonder how other's think the situation could best be handled.
