posted on October 21, 2003 10:07:37 PM new
The beginning of the End, oops, it is The End, thank you Bush and gang
Russia`s Switch into the Euro signals Decline of US Dollar as a Global Currency
October 21 2003 at 5:22 PM
Russia`s Switch into the Euro signals Decline of US Dollar as a Global Currency
The Global Redlining of America:
Bush Plunges U.S. into Rapid Decline
The previously unthinkable is now on the table. Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, is giving serious consideration to trading its black gold in euros, a switch that would surely set dominos in motion among other oil producing nations and, ultimately, knock the dollar off its global throne.
Americans can thank George Bush and his Pirates for accelerating a process that might have taken decades to evolve, but which now looms as a "catastrophe" on the horizon. "There are already a number of countries within OPEC that would prefer to trade in euros," said oil analyst and U.S. Council on Foreign Relations member Youssef Ibrahim, in an interview with the Moscow Times, October 10. "Putin's putting a big card on the table."
A switch to the euro "is really possible," according to Russian economist and Putin advisor Yevgeny Gavrilenkov. "Why not? More than half of Russia's oil trade is with Europe. But there will be great opposition to this from the United States."
Gayrilenkov can be forgiven his understatement. Russian President Vladimir Putin dropped his bombshell as if casually stating the time of day. Is Russia considering a switch from dollar-pricing of petroleum? "We do not rule out that it is possible. That would be interesting for our European partners," Putin told reporters at a joint news conference with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in the Ural Mountains region of Russia.
Interesting, indeed. Even more important than the huge and immediate boost that a Russian oil-euro arrangement would provide to the European Union, the move would signal the definitive end of America's artificial dollar-domination of the planet, a privileged status the U.S. has abused as a weapon since the end of World War II.
As Dr. Sonja Ebron wrote in , February 20, "Given the highly leveraged and fragile state of our economy, an OPEC switch from the dollar to the euro would bring a quick and devastating dollar and Wall Street crash that would make 1929 look like a $50 casino bet." (See "Why African Americans Should Oppose the War."
One month before the U.S. invasion, Dr. Ebron warned of the monstrous blowback that would result:
"War is not the answer. It's a shortsighted desperation play that is doomed to failure. Our military forces may take but cannot hold Iraq's oil, as they have failed to tame Afghanistan's land. Far from staving off disaster, our arrogance may instead compel OPEC to 'go euro' en masse, taking many oil-consuming nations with them by force of economics. And a trade war with Europe will lend the coup de grace to our economy."
The shrinking superpower
The Bush men launched their offensive largely to ensure that oil would continue to be priced in dollars. American military dominance of the Middle East and a series of "regime changes" would eliminate the euro-threat - or so the theory went. An opposite chain of events has occurred, with the impetus coming, not from OPEC, but from an increasingly confident and assertive Russia, for whom Shock and Awe is mere fireworks.
Putin displayed his card to the world - a bargaining chip with the EU and an implicit threat to the United States - because he could. The "sole superpower" cannot stop him, but must instead come up with terms that outweigh the benefits of euro-logic. The Bush Pirate's quest for a global market subordinate to American fiat has failed. This shift in the global relationship of forces should have been expected when Bush declared war against world order. It is the logical result of, and answer to, the president's 2002 ultimatum, "either you are with us, or against us." The planet now prepares to turn on its own axis. Once set in motion, the effects will be irreversible, no matter which party wins the White House in 2004. Henry C. K. Liu got it right in his far-sighted April 5 Asia Times piece, "The War that may end the age of superpower."
"This war has succeeded in pushing Russia, France, Germany and China closer, in contrast if not in opposition to US interests worldwide, a significant development with long term implications that are difficult to assess at presentS.
"This war will end from its own inevitable evolution, even without anti-war demonstrations. It will not be a happy end. There is yet no discernible exit strategy for the US. After this war, the world will have no superpower, albeit the US will remain strong both economically and militarily."
Saudi Arabia is the number one oil exporter. Having severed its military alliance with the U.S., the Saudi royal family may be ready to drop the other shoe. "The Saudi Crown Prince [Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud]'s visit to Russia was of great significance and the regime is talking about closer cooperation with LUKoil and other Russian companies," says Council on Foreign Relations oil analyst Youssef Ibrahim.
No nation is eager to upset the global currency regime. ("We do not want to hurt prices on the market," President Putin was quick to add, at his Urals press conference.) The Saudi princes, who value their dollar-denominated wealth more highly than the teachings of Wahhabi Islam, are by inclination among the least likely candidates to lead an OPEC euro-shift. Yet relentless pressures from Ariel Sharon's Israel, its lobbyists and allies on Capitol Hill, and from the Likkud group within the Bush administration, have pushed the Saudis closer to the breakpoint. If Russia goes euro, they will likely follow - sooner, if there is one more military outrage against a sovereign Arab state. (In that sense, the fate of the dollar may be in Sharon's hands.)
Iran, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, would go euro in an instant, once it saw others headed for the door. Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez relishes the idea. His nation exports about as much oil as Iran.
Muslim Indonesia, the oil giant of the Pacific with huge contracts to supply the Chinese, actively debates the merits of the euro. In an April 17 report filed by Bloomberg's Tokyo bureau ("Indonesia May Dump Dollar; Rest of Asia, Too?", Indonesian Vice President Hamzah Haz was quoted: "One thing is for sure, the adoption of the euro as an alternative means of payments could be an effective solution to speculative dollar-oriented dealings.''
Rule by idiots
Iraq - the invasion and resistance - has worked a sea change in global relations. History is galloping ahead of every scenario that could have been envisioned before the Bush Pirates set out on their hegemonic mission. However, the scheming fools at the Project for a New American Century must be given their due; only the most monumental stupidity, arrogance and willful ignorance could have set the reigning superpower on such a calamitous course toward political isolation, economic instability, and shrinking relevance to the designs of mankind.
Saddam Hussein began trading Iraqi oil in euros in November 2000. "This was another reason [why the U.S. attacked]," said analyst Ibrahim in his Moscow Times interview. "There is a great political dimension to this. Slowly more power and muscle is moving from the United States to the EU, and that's mainly because of what happened in Iraq."
The Bush men also saw the Iraq invasion as a world-remaking, catalytic event. They destroyed Iraq's infrastructure, so that corporate cronies could reap billions "reconstructing" the nation along the Houston model, as a base for further penetration of the Middle East and Central Asia. The unraveling came quickly. Now, even the handpicked, non-governing Iraqi Governing Council looks forward to voiding the criminally exorbitant reconstruction contracts imposed by the occupation authorities. George Bush "has signed many papers," said Ammar Abdul Aziz, son of prominent Shi'ite Council member Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. "But one day the occupiers will leave. The Iraqi people will not allow any of these contracts." (See "A Shi'ite Warning to America," Asia Times, October 11.)
Having painfully experienced America's way of doing business, a sovereign Iraq could be expected to join the euro-rush.
Renowned political journalist and author Tariq Ali, speaking on Democracy Now! October 10, peers through the Iraqi end of the tunnel: "The big thing will happen when the Shi'ite groups in the south of Iraq decide enough is enough and join the resistance and, when they do, it really will be the beginning of the end. There's no way they can carry on."
The inevitable collapse of the U.S. occupation and the looming shift to the euro will dictate the broad outlines of world affairs in the near term, and dramatically impact conditions of life in the United States.
Journalist Sydney Schanberg, writing in the current issue of the the Village Voice, wonders what happened to the Pentagon's seven-nation, five-year Middle East-North Africa war campaign - the plan Wesley Clark learned of in November, 2001, but didn't get around to telling the public about until publication of his latest book, last month. (See , "Wesley Clark: Dishonest to the Core, and Probably Nuts," October 9.) "How far has the White House taken this plan?" asks Schanberg. "And how long can the president keep the nation in the dark, emerging from his White House cocoon only to speak to us in slogans and the sterile language of pep rallies?"
The Project for a New American Century folks are still in charge, Condoleezza Rice's new duties, notwithstanding. It is their plan that has plunged the U.S. into premature and precipitous decline, and presents a catastrophic threat to the dollar.
posted on October 22, 2003 03:46:13 AM new
Tired of posting under austbounty?
Do you strive for comedy or is it just how it comes out? Oh wait none of that is your words... just more cut and past from your favorite anti-american news....
posted on October 22, 2003 04:29:11 AM new
Easy fixed;
USA and other ‘willing’ parties just have to refuse to buy in Euros.
That will force sellers to switch back to US$.
Sure it may mean a necessary reduction in consumption, like SUV’s.
It seems that those ‘ hawks’ have brought even more nits, pests, and pain to the nest!!
Boy Oh Boy! It’s a shame the neocons’ incomes aren’t ‘linked’ to their productivity!!!!
I wonder how long before Iraq is PERMANANTLY selling oil in Euros!
I wonder if Bush’s Patriotic Oil Pals will keep buying or even selling in US$ if they can save 12c/barrel by trading in Euros’
This article from February explains why a shift to Euro will hurt US.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,900867,00.html
Effectively, the normal standards of economics have not applied to the US, because of the international role of the dollar. Some $3 trillion (£1,880 billion) are in circulation around the world helping the US to run virtually permanent trade deficits. Two-thirds of world trade is dollar-denominated. Two-thirds of central banks' official foreign exchange reserves are also dollar-denominated.
Dollarisation of the oil markets is one of the key drivers for this, alongside, in recent years, the performance of the US economy. The majority of countries that require oil imports require dollars to pay for their fuel. Oil exporters similarly hold, as their currency reserve, billions in the currency in which they are paid. Investing these petrodollars straight back into the US economy is possible at zero currency risk.
So the US can carry on printing money - effectively IOUs - to fund tax cuts, increased military spending, and consumer spending on imports without fear of inflation or that these loans will be called in. As keeper of the global currency there is always the last-ditch resort to devaluation, which forces other countries' exporters to pay for US economic distress. It's probably the nearest thing to a 'free lunch' in global economics.
And for a long time, everything has worked smoothly. The oil industry was born in Texas, and so developed in dollars. The complex web of supply chains, distribution, and futures markets, all run off the central rock that is the US dollar.
But now there is the euro.
PS
1Barrell of oil = 42 Gallons
168 quarts, or
5376 fluid ounces, or
10752 tablespoons, or
32256 teaspoons, or
Bear and 12; you may need to remember that “currently” a barrel equals about 159Litres.. your nation thanks you for supporting the ‘bring it on’
Bush may soon be asking for another $100Mill in funds to re-educate Americans into understanding metric standards.
Perhaps another $100Mill to change over to metric too!!
OH!;
It’s a complex web we weave!!!
Don’t get me wrong,
You see!; It’s also in my interest$ to see the US$ strong, because I derive a significant amount of my income from trading in US$ on ebay.com.
In fact I cringe; believe it or not, when I see the AU$ go up in comparison as it did today, it’s now over US$0.70 (six year high!).
At one stage it was US48c & I was loving it.
For US$1000, I was getting AU$2080
NOW!
I am getting AU$1420.
That means a drop in the turnover of OVER 30%; which could actually spell a profit of zero. Or a difference in profit of AU$600+ or even a loss!
Strangely enough; what does give me some sense of joy however is that this change to Euros may FORCE the war mongers to tow the line!
You see 12 & Bear; some of us have the INTEGRITY to see beyond per$onal self interests and consider JUSTICE!
But some shmucks are so dumb and greedy as to not be content with having it mostly their way.
NOW WHAT!
Bribe Russia? (valid option)
Attack Russia? (I think not)
Assassinate Puttin? (Careful)
Rightly or wrongly; you may hate Clinton BUT SURELY you long for those more prosperous and safer days!
We know that the average ‘Joe’ and ‘GI-Joe’ does; Surely to wish for these times is un-American.
If I may be so bold as to speak what I feel would also be in the hearts of Honourable & True Patriotic Americans!
A Pox on those that have brought this $hit to us.
OH YES! Bush will win the next ellections for SUUUURE!
LOL!
posted on October 22, 2003 05:47:35 AM new
russia exports oil to western europe via the transiberian pipeline,it is quoted in euro now.
if UK converts to euro,the north sea crude could be quoted in euro as well.
just facts of life we have to deal with.
-sig file -------The thrill is gone!!
posted on October 22, 2003 06:33:55 AM new
Aust - although you have a set hard belief system you still accept fact sets that others promote instead of just observing.
Sometimes they are right, sometimes very seemingly minor things are very wrong and not minor at all.
A picky point that matters. Inflation is not so much a concern for policy makers despite their public facade as it is a basic needed quality of money. EEveryone has agreed to denounce inflation just as they do adultry and abusing pets. But the hard fact is that money is PERISHABLE. You can't just accumalate a pile of it over a generation and sit on it. Any significant amount of it has to be traded in ways that reduce it's liquidity - it is no longer CASH. People speak of a cashless society. Well on a global scale we have a cashless society for all the significant players. The cash you carry in your wallet to buy lunch hardly matters on a global scale.
Think about it. Just sit and think about all of it sometimes without reading what everyone else says and letting your glands take over your brain.
posted on October 23, 2003 09:35:33 AM new
If switching to the Euro would be beneficial to these oil exporters, they will do it.
But none of them want the US crippled, either economically of militarily.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, along with their royal families, exist today only because of the US.
They will also face the prospect of calling on the EU or Russia if they get into problems such as being attacked or nuclear blackmail by Iran or Pakistan. They all know that these countries can not be depended upon for security or in the case of Russia, they do not want Russina military anywhere near them.
While there are many scenarios in which the US might be economically harmed through actions by oil exporting nations, all have realized that should the US get an economic cold, the rest of the world suffers near fatal pneumonia.
Trading oil in Euros might last about 10 months before the Euro gains so much value that the EU will beg for change.
The US economy is the only economy productive enough to absorb the harms that comje form being the major trade denomination.
Japan devotes huge enegies dailey to keep the value of the yeen as depressed as possible, as does China.
Devaluing and usurping the dollar would bring about a short term hit tot he US economy, but then it would fire up production in the US as US goods become cheaper on the world market.
But the EU and oil producers would pay an economic and political price far greater than any harm to the US. And for over half a century, it is a price none of them have been willing to pay.
posted on October 23, 2003 10:01:23 AM new
it is not possible to rig the world foreign exchange markets,no central bank has enough fund to intervene for too long,besides intervention does not work.
euro is born out of a concept for united europe,it is very complex and it is too soon to tell how successful it is.
as for central bank reserve,first it was just gold,then comes us dollars,now comes euro,so to each its own-us dollars,euro or gold,each country can decide how much of each.
some of the factors to consider would be who are your major trading partners,and how fast your economy grows.
the euro is stronger now than the us dollar,i think it has more to do with our deficit than their economy,their economy seems to be lagging behind us in recovery.
take a look at price of gold,it has been rising ,it has to do with our dollars,not the economy.
thru the 80s and 90s,most investors feel us dollars is a better alternative than gold,now it looks like opposite is true.
-sig file -------The thrill is gone!!
posted on October 23, 2003 10:27:35 AM new
reamond - What a wonderful surprise to see you posting again.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, along with their royal families, exist today only because of the US.
But looks like that may be changing.
taken from UPI yesterday - Article Pakistan & Saudi's trade Nukes for Oil
according to the United Press International source, Abdullah and Musharraf also discussed the possibility of Pakistan supplying troops, not to Iraq, but to the kingdom.
By mutual agreement, U.S. forces withdrew from Saudi Arabia earlier this year to relocate.....
