posted on January 20, 2004 11:16:32 PM newWhat shall oil prices do as China and India become consumers? What about air quality? China and India are exempt from the restrictions of the Kyoto treaty
China unable to quench thirst for oil
January 20 2004 11:35 | Last Updated:
China's fast-growing economy has overtaken Japan to become the world's second largest consumer of crude oil after the US, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Chinese government.
Latest IEA estimates say China consumed 5.46m barrels a day last year, compared with Japan's 5.43m b/d. In the last quarter of 2003, the IEA says, China was the "main driver of global oil demand growth".
The US remains by far the biggest oil user, consuming more than 20m b/d. The growth in Chinese demand is expected to continue this year, at a time when Opec has little room to boost oil output and US commercial oil inventories are at their lowest levels since 1975, creating tight conditions in the global market. Gee, wouldn't it be nice if the US had some realestate with lots of oil?
Benchmark US crude futures hit $35.95 a barrel yesterday, their highest level since US-led forces invaded Iraq last March.
The latest figures underline China's thirst for natural resources to fuel its industrial revolution. Yesterday, China reported economic growth of 9.9 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2003, taking full year growth to 9.1 per cent.
They also confirm that the economy - to the dismay of the ruling Communist party - is becoming ever more dependent on energy imports, mainly from the Middle East.Will China send troops to Iraq? Or will China just supply weapons technology for oil?
On Monday Hu Jintao, Chinese president, begins a tour that includes Egypt, Algeria and Gabon - all energy exporters.
Anxious to diversify its suppliers, Beijing has directed its state-controlled companies to buy into oilfields around the world.
"It reflects the generally uneasy feeling in the government," said Joe Zhang, head of China research at UBS in Hong Kong. "Strategically, politically, militarily, somehow they don't feel comfortable."
Chinese customs figures show the country imported a record 91m tonnes of crude oil last year, up 31 per cent from 2002. It also exports oil and refined products, but by 2030 China's net oil imports are expected to reach 10m b/d and meet more than 80 per cent of its demand, compared with 35 per cent in 2000. Just over a decade ago, China was a net exporter of oil.
Chinese demand has boosted oil tanker rates to near record levels on the Middle East to China route. Rates have tripled since October, and now exceed tanker rates from the Middle East to the US by 20 per cent.Now just watch and listen-- gasoline will reach new highs because of a tanker shortage
Oil demand in China is rising because of rapid growth in electricity generation and the dramatic increase in the number of vehicles on the country's roads.
posted on January 20, 2004 11:43:59 PM new
I long ago began asking myself and anyone else who'd listen just what the heck this planet was gonna do when a billion Chinese people and a billion Indians wanted their own piece of the pie -- cars, air conditioners, refrigerators. I mean, we gas-guzzling, ultra-consuming Westerners have already punched a hole in the ozone layer with our "conveniences" -- what's going to happen when two-thirds of the planet is suddenly spewing just as much filth into the air as we are?
Haha, guess what? Neither you nor I has the right to tell anybody else what they can and cannot do. We'll all go down together, in a wheezing fit of "consumption" -- brothers at last...
posted on January 21, 2004 12:15:15 AM new
Look on the bright side: it will certainly speed up our space program & space colonies... Censorship, like charity, should begin at home; but unlike charity, it should end there --Clare Booth Luce
posted on January 21, 2004 12:48:06 PM new
Perhaps this is the real reason behind the US invading Afganistan and Iraq. If they have enough bases and resources there they may not even need to invade Iran or Saudi Arabia because they will be so threatened it will modify their behavior.
I do very much see the possibility of China becoming as great a threat to the US in twenty or thirty years as the USSR was.
posted on January 21, 2004 12:56:31 PM new
At China's current growth rate they will be a threat in 5 years or less. Their energy use and material consumption is already having a global effect.
posted on January 21, 2004 01:20:32 PM new
The Real Reason!
Bush & Cheney have both been actively seeking a location that borders Saudi Arabia's oil fields. With the initial step of their plan comming to fruition, by the US occupation of Iraq. On to the next, which is to drill from Iraq, in angular fashion into Saudi Arabia's oil fields, and then pump them dry.
posted on January 22, 2004 03:09:43 AM new
KC - Considering that Iraq is widely believed to have oil reserves that exceed Saudi Arabias there is a big problem with that theory.
Reamond - there is no shortage of oil. History has shown that when demands increase on a measurable scale OPEC mearly ramps up production. Most of the nations of OPEC have the abilty to more than double their current production rates but have joined together in agreement limiting production to assigned numbers in order to protect the value of their resources. If the population of China decides to switch from their bicycles to life in a traffic jam an a large scale the nations of OPEC will increase their profits not by creating a bidding war but simply by selling more of their product..
At least those of us in SoCal can rejoice in the knowledge that we are not the only ones that voluntarily sit in standstill traffic on a daily basic? Can you imagine a whole nation that rivals rush hour on the 405?
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on January 22, 2004 03:40:12 AM new
Fenix, their crude lust excludes no one, they have already secured Iraq's reserves AND they will get the Saudi's oil too.
posted on January 22, 2004 06:24:03 AM newthere is no shortage of oil
By the same logic there is no shortage of anything. There is no shortage of lumber either, so why isn't lumber cheaper ? I mean the world can grow all the trees it wants for practically nothing, so why the price increases in lumber ?
OPEC is currently near capacity for production. There will soon be a shortage of tankers to move the oil as consumption increases in Asia.
But let's assume that China and India's increasing oil consumption can be met without market upheavels. The pollution alone will be worse than anything the US has ever produced. Remember China is an exempt developing country as defined in the Kyoto treaty that everyone thinks the US should sign.
Where are the environmental protesters in China and India ? Why aren't all the enviro-wackos from the US traveling to China and India to stop their mad rush into polluting the world's air and water ?
The oil market upheavel is the first shoe to drop. The second will be the pollution.
Whether you "think" there is an oil supply problem is irrelevant. The pollution problem alone will dwarf anything we've ever seen before.
posted on January 22, 2004 12:27:42 PM new
::Where are the environmental protesters in China and India ?::
I don't know about India but as far as China - I think the enviromental protestors may be thinking of a past protest in a certain square and the way it was borken up. The PRC isn't real big on it''s citizens making political statements.
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on January 24, 2004 10:16:46 AM new
BEIJING, Jan. 22 (Xinhuanet) -- China's demand for automobiles in 2020 is expected to reach 20.74 million units, including 20.43 million sedans, and the total number of cars in China by then will top 156 million, reported Tuesday's China Automobile News.
posted on January 25, 2004 08:37:31 AM new
hello,supply and demand.
price goes up when demand exceeds supply and some of us will use less energy.
we will conserve energy as we open windows,turn on the fan or drink more water or just sweat it out.
plan better when we go on our next joyride,shopping spree etc.
in the winter,we will wear thermal underwear,sit close to fireplace,better insulate our house and eat more FATTY PORK.
many years ago as we dined in a southern chinese restuarant in china in a hot summer day,the waiter told us there is a city ordinance which said they cannot turn on the ceiling fan unless the temperature is 97 degreEs or more.
the truth is the fan is broken and they dont bother to fix it,as electricity is expensive.
we all survive,have our meals and get back to the hotel.
WE WILL SURVIVE,MARK MY WORDS.
-sig file -------the lobster in the boiling pot of water who tries to prevent the others from climbing out.
posted on January 25, 2004 04:44:09 PM new
agh,survival versus quality of life -the key is affordability.
who lives in shantytown and who lives in mansion ??
if they are sending our scans and xrays to radiologist in india who makes 25k a year,what does it tell you?
we cant afford the local radiologist who make 250,000 a year.
what should the radiologist do to keep his job??
join the union,move to india or get a paycut.
-sig file -------the lobster in the boiling pot of water who tries to prevent the others from climbing out.
posted on January 25, 2004 06:17:56 PM new
Where do you live that radiologists make 250K a year? And unless you are sending the patient to India I'm not sure how we are sending radiology jobs overseas. Radiologist takes the films, department and patient physician evaluate the films diagnosis and treat patient. Where does the person in India fit in?
Are you reffering to archiving? I did a couple stints in the dungeon of a hospital playing the film purge game - and I can assure you I made nothing close to 250K a year, hell I would't have even made 25k doing that.
Or are you reffering to the doctor who evaluates the films? There are apparenntly some hospitals that are experimenting with transmitting films electronically for diagnosis in order to cut departmental expenses of a dedicated doctor on staff just for that purpose.
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
[ edited by Fenix03 on Jan 25, 2004 06:24 PM ]
posted on January 25, 2004 07:42:19 PM new
Fenix- It is my understanding that some films are being digitally transmitted to India for actual diagnostic screening, such as mamagrams, pap slides, xrays, etc..
...join the union,move to india or get a paycut
Well these pay cuts are another huge problem. It will lead to a full scale Depression. Do you realize that as real wages decline significantly, assets will automatically depreciate ? This will lead to not only high unemployment, but insolvancy and bankruptacy on an unheard of scale.
This excess production capacity and falling wages are a recipe for economic disaster.
Have you never wondered why interest rates remain so low while the dollar falls, oil and gold, and the deficit keeps going up ? Greenspan is unable to raise rates due to wage pressures and over capacity. He know that if we don't keep consuming, the other shoe will fall.
Quality of life does make a difference, it is the stuff revolotions are made of.
posted on January 25, 2004 07:54:52 PM new
::Fenix- It is my understanding that some films are being digitally transmitted to India for actual diagnostic screening, such as mamagrams, pap slides, xrays, etc.. ::
That is what I was referring to in the last paragraph. It is not a huge trend right now. There are a few that are experimenting with the process but even if it takes on widespread acceptance we are talking about a doctor or two a hospital. It is the doctors not the radiologist that evaluate films. This is a trade off - if you want to cut medical costs you are going to have to deal with changes. Since I don't know many doctors that can't find employment I'm not quite sure what is being sacrificed.
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on January 25, 2004 10:25:30 PM new
How does it create any more likelihood of misdiagnosis than an onsight doctor? Is it that you naturally assume that a doctor is India is less able to read a film than one in the US?
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on January 26, 2004 04:36:24 AM new
Yes I would worry about how well a foreign Doctor will do evaluating x-rays or other tests. Some of the foreign medical schools are just not up to snuff and they may work the fellow long hours where fatigue effects his evaluations. That is after all what this is about - money - nobody is presenting it as an improvement in quality. Even the medical malpractice question may come into play because despite all the effort to elevate Doctors to Godhood they are human. If they know they will not be held responsible for their errors half way around the world there will be some who are not sufficiently self motivated to do their very best.
An even in India I worry about the language barrier. I once went to the Emergency Room and was exaimined by a Doctor who had a very poor grasp of English. He knew technical terms but not enough to phrase questions to a patient. If I had not been able to switch to Spanish for him it would have been very difficult.
If there is a need to communicate between the person treating the patient and the person exaimining the films there is that much less chance they will bother to do so if they are half a world away in a different time zone with a different primary language. You do see they will be reading films for French, German, Spanish and other language using practices too? Unless those countries disallow it.
posted on January 26, 2004 06:18:58 AM new If they could get away with it, the insurance industry would move the entire medical community along with the patients to India!!! The savings by such an outrageous outsourcing would boost ONLY the Insurance Industry's profit while Americans continue to pay escalating premiums and the poor just get shafted as usual..
Maybe those doctors left behind in India are too busy to handle diagnostic screening for the U.S. Insurance Industry.... and as the brain drain continues....the quality of services to be found in India may diminish significantly.
posted on January 26, 2004 09:11:45 AM new
But if a Doctor in India can make more by working on US patients by telepresence the local people will still do without his services.
posted on January 26, 2004 09:56:53 AM newHow does it create any more likelihood of misdiagnosis than an onsight doctor? Is it that you naturally assume that a doctor is India is less able to read a film than one in the US?
The nightmare is not actually in the probability of a misdiagnosis, it is suing after the fact. Currently there is no way to long arm an Indian citizen into a US civil case. That along with the huge costs of deposing witnesses in India.
However, this long arm problem could in fact cause more cases of unqualified/negligent persons inspecting the films since there would be no civil remedies at risk.
posted on January 26, 2004 11:39:59 AM new
You guys should do a little research into this one. I was surprised to learn that in reality, most of the films being sent over are being sent at night because of government 24/7 regulations. Rather than hiring new diagnostic staff which they normally would not have employed they are staffing out the after hour work. There are a couple companies taking these contracts - Wipro in India and US based companies like Logic Radiology that contract with "Nighthawks" (privately contracted radiologists around the world who by the way are required to be board certified in the state that the films are coming from).
There are two reasons for this outsourcing. Yes one is cost. It is less expensive for a HOSPITAL (insurance companies are not the reason for this Helen - if you want to blame someone - go after the federal government who enacted the 24/7 regs) to outsource than to bring in a full clock load especially during the slower overnight shift. The second is that there are a shortage of qualified radiological diagnosticians in the US right now.
There is huge advantage to this style of work in that at any given time you have access to specialists in every field available to diagnose as opposed to the one or two individuals on staff that are often working outside their specialty.
I don't think it is quite as evil as you believe it to be.
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on January 26, 2004 01:24:07 PM new
have you noticed walgreen,eckerd and costco all have foreign pharmacists??
one keyed me into the system with wrong age and sex and my insurance program denied me my small discount for generic precription drug.
another told all of us to wait 5-10 minutes for our precription,she may think this is customer service but we dont see the humor,you dont have to be a genius to know she is the only pharmacist on duty and if she is talking to customer,where does she find time to fill our prescription in 5 minutes??
some are so disorganised,you can practically punch them in the face,rob them blind and walk away with the medication free.
but before all these,dont we have technicians reading pepsmear at home,on kitchen counter??
-sig file -------the lobster in the boiling pot of water who tries to prevent the others from climbing out.
posted on January 26, 2004 01:25:43 PM new "It is less expensive for a HOSPITAL (insurance companies are not the reason for this Helen -"
Fenix, As soon as the hospital reduces their cost by outsourcing, the insurance company will reduce their payment to the hospital while patient premiums will continue to rise.
In the end, the Insurance industry will make the profit and that is why they are encouraging such outsourcing.
