posted on February 1, 2004 12:52:48 PM new
The bird flu in Asia has been getting worse each year. All the experts say it is just a matter of time until they have that critical case where this strain of flu combines genetic material with a current common human strain. This is just how the virus operates. You can count on it. When the small genetic tweak finally happens that makes it possible for it to be transmitted from person to person just like it does now from bird to bird it will be the first radically different strain of flu that has hit the world since 1918. There have been strains strong enough to cause pandemics in the last century but they were all variations on strains that had been through the population before.
If a completely new strain sweeps through the world it will be the first one in our modern era. With modern travel by airplane such an event will be truely something new. The last time this happened was when the steam ship was the fastest common mode of travel. And the nature of the economy back then was mostly local.
We have no idea what effect having a disease with say a 20% fatality rate will have on a global economy. I doubt if there is any government in the world that know what to do to plan for such an event. Especially when it can be world wide in days instead of months.
But the near certainty of it happening should cause you as individuals to consider what effect it will have on your employment and what services you may need that could be disrupted. Even what items you usually buy that may not be available if international trade is disrupted. Then there is the possibility it will be an opportunity in that there will be jobs open after due to loss of skilled workers. What effect it potentially has on securities and currency markets I can't even start to guess.
But if anyone has some ideas please post them for us to consider.
posted on February 1, 2004 01:27:31 PM new
My best idea/advice: become and stay as healthy as possible. Those with weak or hindered immune systems are always most at risk for contracting viruses.
Beyond that, it depends how far one is willing to go to protect oneself... Stay out of crowded, confined areas where the air is recirculated (airplanes, for example). Wash your hands ( -no, you don't need that anti-bacterial stuff; the friction of rubbing your hands together in water and drying them on a clean towel removes more germs than any soap). Take a look in the kitchens/food-prep areas of the restaurants in which you dine. If they're storing meat in a five-gallon bucket on the floor ( -hey, I've seen this in more than one restaurant in San Francisco) or ladling pre-mixed eggs from a similar container to make your breakfast omelet, think twice about eating there.
Thoroughly wash any foods (vegetables and fruits) you're likely to consume raw, and don't buy produce from countries that use human feces as fertilizer. If you're already on a bottled springwater kick, switch to distilled bottled water, and drink half a gallon every day.
Avoid non-essential medications -- especially anti-biotics.
Keep good company and have yourself at least one belly-laugh every day...
posted on February 1, 2004 06:52:35 PM new
I was gabbing with my doctor not long ago regarding the flu that was racing through our school. He remarked that he is convinced that the world is on the verge of a pandemic of one sort or another, that will make the 1918 version look like a mild cold in comparison...swell....
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Mi abuelita me dijo "en boca cerrada no entran moscas".
posted on February 1, 2004 06:56:31 PM new
Here, unfortunately, seems to be proof that bird flu will spread human-to-human...
Vietnamese Sisters May Have Caught Bird Flu From Brother, WHO Says
By Emma Ross The Associated Press
Published: Feb 1, 2004
BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) - Two Vietnamese sisters who died from bird flu may have caught the disease from their brother, which would be the first known case involving human-to-human transmission in the outbreak now sweeping Asia, the World Health Organization said Sunday.
The source of the sisters' infection has not been identified, but investigations have failed to find a specific event, such as contact with sick poultry, or an environmental source to explain the cases, WHO spokesman Bob Dietz said in Hanoi.
posted on February 1, 2004 07:15:16 PM new
You sound like you have a smart doc Prof. I sat and had some people who went through the 1918 flu tell me about it first hand. It was rather chilling. I still remember the thing that scared the one fellow so bad was that it wasn't the old and young that died like so many flu epidemics. He said for example his neigbor was a straping big healthy farmer of about 30 years old and he was ok when my friend talked to him and three days later he was dead. It took the healthy and middle aged too. I would suppose in a rural setting like you have on a ranch you could hole up and avoid going into town for a few weeks at a time if it was really bad. Will tenure save your job if you didn't show up for a month?
I'm very fortunate I spoke with many older folks before they were gone and were exposed to their experiences. I was friends with a man of about the same age that rode with the Mexican army against Poncho Villa. He was riding in a group and somebody shot at them from far away. He said it felt like somebody slapped his leg hard and his horse stumbled and went down. About half way to the ground he heard the shot and realized his horse was dead - then it rolled over on top of him and he stopped worrying about his leg. He remembers laying there on the ground with a hole through his leg and his dead horse still across his legs pinning him down and that instant was frozen clearly in his memory as the moment he decided he didn't want to be a soldier anymore.
posted on February 2, 2004 05:08:04 AM newYou sound like you have a smart doc Prof.
He's an interesting guy. I met him at a junior rodeo years ago when my daughter broke her wrist falling off a horse...offered to take us in to his office and get her patched up right then, at 2 p.m. on a saturday! He's been our doc ever since, although mostly for the kids. I don't believe in getting sick myself.
We often don't go to town for a month, so laying low while a bad bug passed wouldn't be that difficult. I've got so many sick days saved up I could take the better part of a year off and still get paid.
I met a guy who was doing an oral history project of the old folks in our area. He came out to chat with my grandmother before she passed away...don't know if he ever finished it. The wealth of history and wisdom locked away in nursing homes is surely sad.
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Mi abuelita me dijo "en boca cerrada no entran moscas".
posted on February 2, 2004 10:50:49 AM new
It looks like the present avian flu (H5) is similar to the avian flu of 1918 (H1).
I don't think we'll evey see the level of fatalities from flu in the industrial coutries that we did in 1918.
We are much better able to control vectors, and antibiotics, while ineffective against a virus, can stop other pathogens from killing a person weakened by the flu.
posted on February 2, 2004 12:10:19 PM new
Now they are looking at a woman in Germany as possibly bringing the bird flu back from Thialand.
They simply don't have enough viral drugs to treat a substantial number of cases stockpiled.
And you have to take such drugs within the first two days of infection to be effective. Life support and treatments for secondary infections would undoubtedly save a few.
GNP, exports and the stock market are booming. What could disturb this idyllic feel good factor, which the BJP is betting on to win the elections? Bird flu could. The deadly H5N1 flu virus is sweeping across Asia , ravaging chicken and duck farms from Japan to Pakistan . It jumps from birds to humans, killing them.
To check the virus, the WHO prescribes the slaughter of all chickens within a three mile radius of known infections. So, millions of chickens have been slaughtered across Asia . But the very act of collecting the birds for slaughter can infect the collectors.
The H5NI virus has hit flocks in Japan , China , Vietnam , Thailand , Cambodia and South Korea . The virus in Pakistan , Laos and Indonesia has not yet been definitively determined, but may be less deadly.
The disease has spread with lightning speed across Asia in a few weeks. Can a virus spread from Japan to Pakistan without touching India ? Very unlikely. Almost certainly India has the virus too, but our moribund officials have not detected it yet.
Areas hit by the virus have typically attempted a cover-up. No farmers or local officials want a mass slaughter of chickens, and so suppress the bad news till it is too late to halt the spread. Indonesia tried to avoid mass slaughter by inoculating flocks at risk, but has now reluctantly accepted that slaughter in infected areas is essential to protect healthy areas.
Governments everywhere have promised compensation for slaughtered birds to farmers. But the very fact that farmers have tried to cover up the truth sug-gests that they fear government compensation will be neither adequate or prompt.
Asian experience holds two lessons for India . First, there could be significant repercussions on the stock markets and the economy (bourses have tumbled all over Asia ). Second, bird flu could wreak electoral havoc.
So far, barely a dozen human deaths from bird flu have been recorded. But this is partly because many affected persons may have no idea that they have the disease. If the virus becomes as worrisome as SARS — which ravaged East Asian economies last year — foreigners will slash visits to India , hitting travel and tourism. This will also affect software and BPO exports.
Software companies suffered when the US issued a travel advisory against visiting India during the Indo-Pak stand-off in 2002. If bird flu spreads, another US travel advisory is likely to follow.
In which case, the stock market will surely suffer. Foreign portfolio inflows largely drove last year’s stock market boom. If bird flu affects foreign sentiment, expect markets to slump.
The political effects could be more serious. Will any chief minister dare send his legions to slaughter chickens after every reported infection? Given the utter lack of confidence Indians have in the government, will poultry farmers believe that they will get compensation without long delays and bribes?
When government inspectors descend on villages to detect bird flu, imagine the scope for extortion to certify a village as disease-free. And if in the process many virus-hit villages are falsely certified as healthy, the disease could spread like wildfire, killing chickens everywhere (with no compensation) and humans too. The price of eggs and chicken will soar.
If this happens, forget the feel good factor. The countryside, with 70 per cent of the population, will be seized with fear, worry and misery. Whether the wrath of voters will fall on state governments or the central government remains unclear. But any change from feel good to feel sick must surely fill the ruling coalition with dread.
The biggest danger is that the H5N1 virus will combine with ordinary flu to form a super-virus that creates a global epi-demic. The Asian flu of 1918 infected 525 million and killed 21 million, more than twice as many as killed in World War I. A repeat performance this year is regarded by scientists as very unlikely, but possible.
Let me not be too alarmist. Possibly Asian bird flu will come and go without causing much harm to India , like SARS. But I have a gut feeling that we will not escape so lightly.
posted on February 6, 2004 11:50:40 AM new
Feb.6, 2004
In recent weeks the avian flu has emerged as a matter of urgent concern for poultry farmers, health officials, and government leaders in Asian countries. Cases of infected poultry have been reported in China, Vietnam, Thailand, and seven other countries, with widespread culling and bans on chicken exports in many of these. But with fewer than twenty human deaths reported thus far, is this something the broader global public should be concerned about? It most definitely is, says Pulitzer-prize winning science journalist Laurie Garrett. In this 'Q &A' article, Garrett explains the origins of the bird flu, how humans could become infected, and why human-to-human transmission could present the entire world with a disastrous public health problem. - YaleGlobal
QUESTION: The World Health Organization says that the risk of a dangerous new pandemic in people is greater than usual this year because normal flu and avian flu are spreading at the same time. If the virus were to mutate, what would be the worst case scenario for human-to-human transmission?
posted on February 6, 2004 01:00:15 PM new
The fear has been that a human somewhere will have both a bird flu infection and a normal flu that is easily transmitted human to human and the two will combine genes in his body - a trick that this virus is known to do easily - and produce a form that has all the punch of the bird flu with the easy human to human vector of the other strain.
However now a new concern is emerging. They have found that a lot of pigs in the areas where there are bird flu are catching it and they can provide just about as effective a mixing ground for the viruses as a human.
If it does not happen in the next few months I feel the time is really ripe for this to happen in the next year or two.
posted on February 6, 2004 01:08:08 PM new
The vaccine they are developing in England is nice but it can never be licensed to be used in the US.
They mix the genes of the bird flu with a common human flu to produce a strain that will be made into a vaccine and that is against US standards.
It was just such a vaccine that the US needed for the past flu season and the board that meets and decides which strains to make a vaccine for turned down their own expert who said the rule is outdated and needed to be changed and voted him down. That is why this last years vaccine was useless against the worst strain being passed around. If the UK makes a vaccine that works against bird flu you will probably have to go to Canada to get it. I can go to Windsor in about 45 minutes but how many can do that? Or will?
posted on February 6, 2004 01:20:01 PM new
Reamond, according to the report Helen linked below, developing enough of the vaccine quickly is the problem:
"Vaccines can only be made on chicken eggs at this time, though there is ongoing research on other possibilities. In 1995 the US National Institutes of Health and the WHO convened a meeting in Washington to figure out what would happen in a 1918-style pandemic. Even if it were possible to spot a new virus and make seed stock for vaccine production in a swift manner (which is underway now for the avian virus), it takes six months, the meeting concluded, to produce millions of doses. If that production occurs in ideal haste at pharmaceutical plants all over the world it would still be impossible to make enough doses to protect more than a small percentage of the world's population. This is because there are only so many live chicken eggs sitting in incubators under sterile conditions worldwide. Even in non-pandemic years the US now suffers shortages and delays in vaccine delivery. If this avian flu turned lethal to human beings and spread globally the very question of who would have access to vaccines could well become a national security issue, the NIH/WHO meeting concluded, with nations shouting helplessly for immunization while other populations happily survived. Consider the scenario discussed in that Washington meeting: At a maximum production level, with Congress waiving liabilities for the private sector pharmaceutical makers, the US could not make enough vaccine just for its own population without a full year's lead time. That means in a pandemic the US would deny vaccine to its neighbors, Canada and Mexico - neither of which has the capacity to make flu vaccine. This could obviously destabilize relations between the nations, prompt illegal vaccine smuggling and lead to longstanding animosities between the countries."
Gravid, there is reason to believe (so far) that avian flu has not spread to pigs:
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization found the virus after swabbing the snouts of pigs in Viet Nam. Since pigs and chickens are often raised together on rural farms, it is possible that they got infected chicken feces on their snouts, but were not "carriers" themselves.
The U.N.F.A.O. does concede, however, that: "Most human cases have been traced to direct contact with infected chickens. However, experts have said it's possible the virus can jump to humans through another mammal, such as pigs."
