Urban fighting is one of the most daunting scenarios U.S. military planners face. Baghdad in particular is a sprawling setting, where Hussein's forces would have significant advantages.
Military targets in Baghdad are sprinkled among a population approaching 5 million. Hussein has constructed an elaborate warren of underground bunkers and escape routes. U.S. soldiers would probably have to slog through Baghdad's streets wearing chemical-weapons suits and carrying extra equipment.
The signals from Hussein come as the White House appears to be moving forward with plans for war. President Bush and his national security team were briefed on several options Monday by Gen. Tommy Franks, head of U.S. Central Command. Reportedly among them was a so-called inside-out plan in which the United States would strike Baghdad first in an attempt to decapitate Iraq's military capability and cause a collapse of the regime.
Given Hussein's signals and the evolving direction of U.S. plans, military analysts said it appears increasingly likely that any U.S. invasion would involve significant urban fighting.
"It's almost a foregone conclusion," said Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution. Hussein "won't fight out in the desert."
posted on August 8, 2002 05:39:33 PM new
This article implies that the population won't be friendly to the US troops and that Iraq has a credible fighting force. Both of these were grossly over estimated the last time.
The Iraqi military will surrender to reporters once a ground campaign begins. The civilian population will throw itself behind the US military as each village and city is liberated. The Iraqi people want to live and they want to be rid of Sadam.
Sadam will in all probability flee or be killed by his own troops. He may end up in North Korea or China, or he may disappear and never be found alive.
Our biggest worry will be Iranian interference in the affairs of Iraq once Sadam is gone. Iran may attempt to send in insurgents to de-stabilize any secular democratic government that replaces Sadam.
Finding common elements to consolidate a government will also be problematic. The Kurds in the North and the religious minorities in the South must be able to meld with the rest of the country. It is very probable that the country could split into 3 separate factions. That poses problems for Turkey with the Kurds, and gives Iran a ready made fulcrum for causing problems. Saudi radicals will also be stirring things up.
Taking out Sadam will prove to be the easiest part of the task. What comes after Sadam will be the tough part.
posted on August 8, 2002 05:40:56 PM new
The urban fighting in Bagdad is our nightmare scenario. Especially since militarists will want a quick resolution. There are better strategies. We could just cut off Bagdad and wait for the defections and one of Saddam's troops to do the dirty work. I believe our military leaders are too quick to spend American lives. Extricating Saddam from Bagdad will require precise surgery, not brute force.
posted on August 8, 2002 09:21:21 PM new
The US military has always had a policy of minimizing OUR casualties. I don't know how anyone with half a brain can think some US military commander is going to send platoons of guys into city streets to fight commando style.
Personally I'll bet our military would be overjoyed if the Republican Guard holes up in the cities. You just surround the place, destroy the power and water and kill anything that comes out with a gun.
posted on August 9, 2002 05:01:26 PM new
"On Thursday, House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, cautioned against an unprovoked U.S. attack against Saddam. Sens. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., have been among Republicans who also have expressed concern."
"``My own view would be to let him bluster, let him rant and rave all he wants,'' Armey said of the Iraqi president in a speech in Des Moines, Iowa, indicating a crack in Republican support for Bush's push to topple Saddam. ``As long as he behaves himself within his own borders, we should not be addressing any attack or resources against him.'' "
After Trent Lott's signal last week and with the upcoming fall elections, Republicans are desserting Bush like they would any sinking ship. Bush is stressing no timelines and vaguely talking about next year for an attack on Iraq.
