posted on September 23, 2002 11:32:07 PM new
Like I said: we haven't seen the worst of it yet.
BTW: I long ago read that it was the Chase-Manhattan Bank that started to call in all of its loans to other banks one night that caused the banks to fail and the stock market to crash. It was done on purpose, the reasons which I can no longer recall (Hey! I used to read this stuff when I was a teen!)
As for my "paranoid theory", I think that it is that Bush and his backers want another Nazi state -- said state to be American and with a world empire. The formula that enabled Germany to become a Nazi state was to have a war that it lost with disillusioned, unemployed service personnel and a stagnant, demolished economy, and a few other ingredients I don't recall offhand. While that may sound silly to many, it is, after all, the only explanation for why Bush and the GOP have purposely driven our economy into the ground. They are trying to replicate the process that brought Germany into power through fascism. This time, it will be corporate fascism instead of aristocratic fascism. Oh, that's right - Bush wants to be crowned Caesar, Emperor of the World! And I'll betcha that's the idea that they have deluded the stupid fool with too!
posted on September 24, 2002 06:45:50 AM new
Morning -
I don't know, Reamond. According to which 'expert' you listen to, there seems to be as many who are bullish as bearish. Predictions appear to be all over the place to me, but quite a few are leaning more to the bearish side in the last few weeks.
Some say our economy is sound, others sound like we're headed for 'the great depression'. Some say certain stocks are becoming stronger, while others keep heading downward.
Quite a few do sound like they think the Dow's headed to 5,000. Some think it may take 10 years before it gets to that level. Some think the bottom will be reached when the market hits 7,500 before it rallys back. Others say it will go to 1997-98 [7,000 (?)] levels before taking a turn for the better. Me? I don't have a clue.
One program [panel of 'experts'] was saying that since a lot of 401ks are invested in stock, they're more likely to stay put rather than take huge losses by selling off.
Looks to me just like most things in life...one can either be a pessimist or an optimist when looking at what might happen. History shows us that in the long run...stocks have made money. The short run...always has had it's ups and downs.
posted on September 24, 2002 08:25:26 AM new
"In the long run you're dead, and in the short run you need to eat". Don't know who said that.
If you're 20 years or more from retirement, I wouldn't worry. Less than that it could be a problem.
There are sooooo many changes that must take place and which we'll have to digest in the next too decades that it is hard to predict.
We are going to have to accept the idea of millions of Central and South Americans coming into the country in order to have a growing economy, but with terrorism how can we do that ? Bush has pulled support for a Republican candidate for a Senate seat because he wants illegals deported and the border sealed (I think this guy is hispanic too). But we'll need those young low wage workers.
Our median age is approaching that of Japan, and some think we'll sink into the same economic funk as Japan. However, Japan is notorious for not accepting immigrants.
I can't see a way out of inflation due to many fiscal issues, and yet, there are some talking about a deflationary recession (it used to be called a depression).
Where will all the new technologies "fit" into the economy such as genetic engineering. A breakthrough in any number of technologies could change all outlooks.
I have recently started buying dividend paying stocks, not because I think the earnings will increase, but because the stock price has lowered to a point that the rate of return becomes attractive. I also have the dividend reinvested, at least until the stock prices rise.
A huge wave of baby boomers "should" start retiring soon, but probably not if they are depending on their 401K, and good old SS will begin to start paying out to them in 5-8 years, and they live longer.
Worse case scenario- it will be like the 1970s stagflation. Best case scenario: New technologies will springboard the economy and a 1990s boom will return.
[ edited by Reamond on Sep 24, 2002 09:56 AM ]
